Final Oscar Predictions: Best Actress – In the Closest Acting Race, Lily Gladstone Could Emerge Victorious and Make Academy History

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:

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OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS

2024 Oscars Predictions:
Best Actress in a Leading Role

Emma Stone in “Poor Things”

Weekly Commentary (March 7, 2024): In best actress, the competition is as fierce as it gets. Emma Stone’s transformation into a woman with a child’s brain surgically implanted in Yorgos Lanthimos’ sci-fi comedy “Poor Things” has garnered substantial support. Yet, Lily Gladstone’s groundbreaking win at the SAG Awards for her riveting portrayal in Martin Scorsese’s “Killers of the Flower Moon” may be the momentum she needed to clinch victory in the midst of voting.

Furthermore, Sandra Hüller’s ferocious turn in the French legal thriller “Anatomy of a Fall” could be splitting votes with Stone among international members, paving the way for Gladstone’s ascent.

Should Gladstone not win, her film faces the prospect of leaving empty-handed, which would be Scorsese’s third film to do so after “Gangs of New York” and “The Irishman.” Similarly, Lanthimos’ “Poor Things” risks tying the record for most nominations without a win if it fails to secure any of its 11 nods, joining “The Turning Point” and “The Color Purple.”

It’s going to be so close.

Will Win: Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
Could Win: Emma Stone (“Poor Things”)
Should Win: Lily Gladstone
Should have been here: Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (“Origin”) and Teyana Taylor (“A Thousand and One”)

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.

The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.

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And the Nominees Are:

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1. Lily Gladstone — “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)

2. Emma Stone — “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)

3. Sandra Hüller — “Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon)

4. Annette Bening — “Nyad” (Netflix)

5. Carey Mulligan — “Maestro” (Netflix)

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Other Eligiblities From 2023 (Alphabetized by Studio)**

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• Tia Nomore — “Earth Mama” (A24)

• Greta Lee — “Past Lives” (A24)

• Cailee Spaeny — “Priscilla” (A24)

• Michelle Williams — “Showing Up” (A24)

• Julianne Moore — “When You Finish Saving the World” (A24)

• Julia Louis-Dreyfus — “You Hurt My Feelings” (A24)

• Sandra Hüller — “The Zone of Interest” (A24) **

• Rosa Salazar — “A Million Miles Away” (Amazon MGM Studios)

• Kylie Rogers — “Landscape with Invisible Hand” (Amazon MGM Studios)

• Elizabeth Banks — “The Beanie Bubble” (Apple Original Films)

• Jessie Buckley — “Fingernails” (Apple Original Films)

• Eve Hewson — “Flora and Son” (Apple Original Films)

• Lily Gladstone — “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)

• Babetida Sadjo — “Our Father, The Devil” (Cinedigm)

• Helen Mirren — “Golda” (Bleecker Street)

• Nia Vardalos — “My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3” (Focus Features)

• Teyana Taylor — “A Thousand and One” (Focus Features)

• Trace Lysette — “Monica” (IFC Films)

• Anya Taylor-Joy — “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” (Illumination)

• Jessica Chastain — “Memory” (Ketchup Entertainment)

• Abby Ryder Fortson — “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate)

• Rachel Zegler — “The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes” (Lionsgate)

• Ashley Park — “Joy Ride” (Lionsgate)

• Evangeline Lilly — “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quanumania” (Marvel Studios)

• Brie Larson — “The Marvels” (Marvel Studios)

• Ayo Edebiri — “Bottoms” (MGM/Orion)

• Rachel Sennott — “Bottoms” (MGM/Orion)

• Alma Pöysti – “Fallen Leaves” (Mubi)

• Lily Gladstone — “The Unknown Country” (Music Box Films)

• Sandra Hüller — “Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon)

• Thomasin MacKenzie — “Eileen” (Neon)

• Jessica Chastain — “Mother’s Instinct” (Neon)

• Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor — “Origin” (Neon)

• Phoebe Dynevor — “Fair Play” (Netflix)

• Myha’la Herrold — “Leave the World Behind” (Netflix)

• Julia Roberts — “Leave the World Behind” (Netflix)

• Julianne Moore — “May December” (Netflix) **

• Natalie Portman — “May December” (Netflix)

• Carey Mulligan — “Maestro” (Netflix)

• Annette Bening — “Nyad” (Netflix)

• Emily Blunt — “Pain Hustlers” (Netflix)

• Michelle Rodriguez — “Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves” (Paramount Pictures)

• Laurie Metcalf — “Somewhere in Queens” (Roadside Attractions)

• Samara Weaving — “Chevalier” (Searchlight Pictures)

• Emma Stone — “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)

• Molly Gordon — “Theater Camp” (Searchlight Pictures)

• Jennifer Lawrence — “No Hard Feelings” (Sony Pictures)

• Hailee Steinfeld — “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)

• Melissa Barrera — “Carmen” (Sony Pictures Classics)

• Jane Levy — “A Little Prayer” (Sony Pictures Classics)

• Layla Mohammadi — “The Persian Version” (Sony Pictures Classics)

• Zar Amir Ebrahimi — “Shadya” (Sony Pictures Classics)

• Leonie Benesch — “The Teachers’ Lounge” (Sony Pictures Classics)

• Hilary Swank — “The Good Mother” (Vertical Entertainment)

• Allison Williams — “M3gan” (Universal Pictures)

• Margot Robbie — “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)

• Fantasia Barrino — “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)

• Phoebe Waller-Bridge — “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” (Warner Bros.)

• Halle Bailey — “The Little Mermaid” (Walt Disney Pictures)

• Ariana DeBose — “Wish” (Walt Disney Pictures)

** This official list is incomplete, with all release dates not yet confirmed and subject to change.

2022 category winner: Michelle Yeoh, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)

Oscars Predictions Categories

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

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