Yahoo Finance Oscars Predictions: Best Actress – Will Lily Gladstone’s Surprise Lead Campaign for ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ Pay Off?
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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2024 Oscars Predictions:
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Weekly Commentary (Sept. 28, 2023): As Variety exclusively revealed, Lily Gladstone’s work as Mollie Burkhart, an Indigenous woman at the center of a sinister plot in Martin Scorsese’s “Killers of the Flower Moon,” will be campaigned for the Oscars in best actress, instead of supporting where many pundits had speculated. She will campaign alongside her Oscar-winning co-star and executive producer, Leonardo DiCaprio.
If recognized, Gladstone would be the first Native American actor nominated in any lead category.
There have been three Indigenous women nominated for best actress – Merle Oberon for “The Dark Angel” (1935), Keisha Castle-Hughes in “Whale Rider” (2003) and Yalitza Aparicio for “Roma” (2018). Those women are British, Kiwi, and Mexican, respectively. Along with never winning an acting Oscar, an Indigenous actress from the U.S. has never won a SAG or Critics Choice prize or even been nominated by those groups.
Variety also exclusively revealed Natalie Portman will officially be the sole lead campaigner for Todd Haynes’ “May December” while her counterpart Julianne Moore will vie for supporting actress. With Gladstone’s category switch, the category is getting stacked, and everyone will fight for one of the five coveted spots.
“Origin” is brought to life exquisitely by the anchoring performance of Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor. Surpassing her Oscar-nominated work as Venus and Serena Williams’ fierce mother in “King Richard” (2021), her internalized and heartbreaking turn is the finest of her career. It would be egregious to see any best actress lineup without including her powerfully moving performance. In fact, it’s strong enough to even consider the possibility of following in the footsteps of Halle Berry, the first and only Black woman to win for “Monster’s Ball” (2001). With such a difficult role with narration and reaction moments, she navigates it precisely and with the utmost skill.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.
The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 18, 2023. Preliminary shortlist voting will begin on Dec. 18, with the results announced on Dec. 21. The voting period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominations announcement on Jan. 23.
The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.
***The list below is not final and will be updated throughout the awards season.
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
Lily Gladstone — “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor — “Origin” (Neon)
Emma Stone — “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
Carey Mulligan — “Maestro” (Netflix)
Natalie Portman — “May December” (Netflix)
Next in Line
Margot Robbie — “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
Fantasia Barrino — “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
Sandra Hüller — “Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon)
Annette Bening — “Nyad” (Netflix)
Greta Lee — “Past Lives” (A24)
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
Cailee Spaeny — “Priscilla” (A24)
Teyana Taylor — “A Thousand and One” (Focus Features)
Jodie Comer — “The Bikeriders” (20th Century Studios) **
Phoebe Dynevor — “Fair Play” (Netflix)
Trace Lysette — “Monica” (IFC Films)
Leonie Benesch — “The Teachers’ Lounge” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Jessie Buckley — “Fingernails” (Apple Original Films)
Helen Mirren — “Golda” (Bleecker Street)
Saoirse Ronan — “Foe” (Amazon Studios)
Eve Hewson — “Flora and Son” (Apple Original Films)
Also In Contention
Julia Louis-Dreyfus — “You Hurt My Feelings” (A24)
Abby Ryder Fortson — “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate)
Zar Amir Ebrahimi — “Shadya” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Jane Levy — “A Little Prayer” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Halle Bailey — “The Little Mermaid” (Walt Disney Pictures)
Layla Mohammadi — “The Persian Version” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Julia Garner — “The Royal Hotel” (Neon)
Kate Winslet — “Lee” (No U.S. Distribution) **
Jessica Chastain — “Memory” (No U.S. Distribution) **
Rachel Zegler — “The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes” (Lionsgate)
All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Studio)**
Jodie Comer — “The Bikeriders” (20th Century Studios) **
Gemma Chan — “The Creator” (20th Century Studios) **
Greta Lee — “Past Lives” (A24)
Cailee Spaeny — “Priscilla” (A24)
Michelle Williams — “Showing Up” (A24)
Julianne Moore — “When You Finish Saving the World” (A24)
Julia Louis-Dreyfus — “You Hurt My Feelings” (A24)
Jessie Buckley — “Fingernails” (Apple Original Films)
Eve Hewson — “Flora and Son” (Apple Original Films)
Lily Gladstone — “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) **
Vanessa Kirby — “Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures) **
Helen Mirren — “Golda” (Bleecker Street)
Scarlett Johansson — “Asteroid City” (Focus Features) **
Nia Vardalos — “My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3” (Focus Features)
Teyana Taylor — “A Thousand and One” (Focus Features)
Trace Lysette — “Monica” (IFC Films)
Juliette Binoche — “The Taste of Things” (IFC Films/Sapan Studio) **
Anya Taylor-Joy — “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” (Illumination)
Abby Ryder Fortson — “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate)
Rachel Zegler — “The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes” (Lionsgate)
Ashley Park — “Joy Ride” (Lionsgate)
Evangeline Lilly — “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quanumania” (Marvel Studios)
Zoe Saldana — “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Marvel Studios)
Brie Larson — “The Marvels” (Marvel Studios)
Rachel Sennott — “Bottoms” (MGM/Orion)
Anjanue Ellis-Taylor — “The Nickel Boys” (MGM)
Sandra Hüller — “Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon)
Thomasin MacKenzie — “Eileen” (Neon)
Penélope Cruz — “Ferrari” (Neon) **
Jessica Chastain — “Mother’s Instinct” (Neon) **
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor — “Origin” (Neon)
Phoebe Dynevor — “Fair Play” (Netflix)
Myha’la Herrold — “Leave the World Behind” (Netflix) **
Julia Roberts — “Leave the World Behind” (Netflix) **
Julianne Moore — “May December” (Netflix) **
Natalie Portman — “May December” (Netflix) **
Carey Mulligan — “Maestro” (Netflix) **
Annette Bening — “Nyad” (Netflix)
Emily Blunt — “Pain Hustlers” (Netflix)
Mia Wasikowska — “Club Zero” (No U.S. Distribution)
Alicia Vikander — “Firebrand” (No U.S. Distribution)
Kate Winslet — “Lee” (No U.S. Distribution)
Jessica Chastain — “Memory” (No U.S Distribution)
Emma Stone — “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
Molly Gordon — “Theater Camp” (Searchlight Pictures)
Jennifer Lawrence — “No Hard Feelings” (Sony Pictures)
Hailee Steinfeld — “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)
Melissa Barrera — “Carmen” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Jane Levy — “A Little Prayer” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Layla Mohammadi — “The Persian Version” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Zar Amir Ebrahimi — “Shadya” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Leonie Benesch — “The Teachers’ Lounge” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Hilary Swank — “The Good Mother” (Vertical Entertainment)
Allison Williams — “M3gan” (Universal Pictures)
Margot Robbie — “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
Fantasia Barrino — “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
Phoebe Waller-Bridge — “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” (Warner Bros.)
Halle Bailey — “The Little Mermaid” (Walt Disney Pictures)
Ariana DeBose — “Wish” (Walt Disney Pictures)
** This official list is incomplete, with all release dates not yet confirmed and subject to change.
2022 category winner: Michelle Yeoh, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
Oscars Predictions Categories
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.
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