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Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. (TSE:PEY) Stock Is Going Strong But Fundamentals Look Uncertain: What Lies Ahead ?

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Peyto Exploration & Development (TSE:PEY) has had a great run on the share market with its stock up by a significant 37% over the last month. However, we wonder if the company's inconsistent financials would have any adverse impact on the current share price momentum. Specifically, we decided to study Peyto Exploration & Development's ROE in this article.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.

See our latest analysis for Peyto Exploration & Development

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Peyto Exploration & Development is:

6.5% = CA$106m ÷ CA$1.6b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2021).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. Another way to think of that is that for every CA$1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn CA$0.06 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

Peyto Exploration & Development's Earnings Growth And 6.5% ROE

On the face of it, Peyto Exploration & Development's ROE is not much to talk about. We then compared the company's ROE to the broader industry and were disappointed to see that the ROE is lower than the industry average of 15%. Given the circumstances, the significant decline in net income by 23% seen by Peyto Exploration & Development over the last five years is not surprising. However, there could also be other factors causing the earnings to decline. Such as - low earnings retention or poor allocation of capital.

So, as a next step, we compared Peyto Exploration & Development's performance against the industry and were disappointed to discover that while the company has been shrinking its earnings, the industry has been growing its earnings at a rate of 6.0% in the same period.

past-earnings-growth
past-earnings-growth

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Has the market priced in the future outlook for PEY? You can find out in our latest intrinsic value infographic research report.

Is Peyto Exploration & Development Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

In spite of a normal three-year median payout ratio of 39% (that is, a retention ratio of 61%), the fact that Peyto Exploration & Development's earnings have shrunk is quite puzzling. It looks like there might be some other reasons to explain the lack in that respect. For example, the business could be in decline.

Additionally, Peyto Exploration & Development has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years, which means that the company's management is determined to pay dividends even if it means little to no earnings growth. Existing analyst estimates suggest that the company's future payout ratio is expected to drop to 2.6% over the next three years.

Summary

Overall, we have mixed feelings about Peyto Exploration & Development. While the company does have a high rate of profit retention, its low rate of return is probably hampering its earnings growth. Wrapping up, we would proceed with caution with this company and one way of doing that would be to look at the risk profile of the business. You can see the 4 risks we have identified for Peyto Exploration & Development by visiting our risks dashboard for free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

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