Philip Morris International Inc. Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year
Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE:PM) just released its quarterly report and things are looking bullish. The company beat expectations with revenues of US$9.5b arriving 3.0% ahead of forecasts. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) were US$1.54, 6.1% ahead of estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Check out our latest analysis for Philip Morris International
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Philip Morris International from twelve analysts is for revenues of US$37.4b in 2024. If met, it would imply a modest 2.7% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 9.8% to US$6.20. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$37.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.03 in 2024. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Philip Morris International's earnings potential following these results.
The consensus price target was unchanged at US$116, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Philip Morris International at US$134 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$95.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Philip Morris International's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 5.5% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 4.3% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.8% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Philip Morris International to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Philip Morris International's earnings potential next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Philip Morris International going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Philip Morris International (1 can't be ignored!) that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com