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Questor: we've made easy money on this property developer – now is the right time to sell

Line of houses
Line of houses

When this column first looked at Harworth in June 2020, shares in the land regeneration and property development specialist were trading at a 37pc discount to their net asset value of 156p a share.

That looked like good value and the shares have advanced smartly. But the gain means that the shares, at 185p at last night’s close, now stand almost in line with their NAV of 178p.

While there is clearly long-term potential in Harworth’s portfolio of assets, it feels as if the easy money has been made and the cold, hard mathematics of valuation suggest it is time to (reluctantly) take profits.

Make no mistake, last week’s full-year results from the Rotherham-headquartered firm were very good.

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In 2021 Harworth continued to actively manage its portfolio as it progressed planning permissions, bought new sites and sold others and stayed focused on land that is suitable for industrial and logistics sites or housing, primarily across the North of England and the Midlands.

The disposals of the Ansty and Kellingley sites, which are admittedly conditional on the receipt of planning permission by the buyers, were struck at a premium to book value, to suggest the 178p NAV is conservative, even after 2021’s leap from 151p.

Moreover, chief executive Lynda Shillaw continues to drive a strategy designed to take net assets towards the £1bn mark, a figure that implies a NAV of around 300p a share.

A strong balance sheet, which carries very little debt, and increased borrowing capacity at its banks mean that Harworth has the wherewithal to pursue its plan.

All of this may persuade truly patient, long-term investors to stick with the company, especially as land could be seen as one hedge against the evil threat to savings that is posed by inflation (and there is no greater believer than this column in the view that, when used properly, stock markets are excellent get-rich-slow mechanisms).

But even some of Harworth’s target markets face headwinds, in the form of inflation, the availability of staff and raw materials, rising interest rates and a possible economic slowdown.

As a result the net asset value’s path from 178p a share to 300p-plus may not be entirely smooth and it is therefore tempting to bank the 82pc capital gain. Sell.

Questor says: sell

Ticker: HWG

Share price at close: 185p

Update: Yellow Cake

This column’s gains on uranium storage specialist Yellow Cake outstrip those on Harworth as the shares have all but doubled since our initial analysis in August 2020.

But in this case it feels like the potential for further gains could be realised much more quickly and in a much more straightforward way.

Granted, Yellow Cake’s last published holdings of U₃O₈ uranium oxide in its specialist facilities came to 15.83 million pounds* with a value of $819m (£625m) for a net asset value per share of 331p.

That may make value-oriented investors blanch, since the shares now trade at a premium to that figure of about a quarter.

However, the company has continued to put to work the money generated by three capital raisings in 2021. By the end of June, Yellow Cake will take its holdings to 18.81 million pounds*, via a succession of deals with Curzon Uranium and the world’s leading uranium miner, Kazatomprom of Kazakhstan.

In addition, the commodity now trades at $59 a pound, some 40pc higher than at the end of 2021 last year.

As a result, adjusting for the year-end cash position and liabilities, as well as subsequent dealings with Kazatomprom, Yellow Cake’s book value now looks to be around 465p to 470p a share, all other things being equal. At that level the discount to NAV disappears.

But with the world teetering on the brink of an energy crisis, and nuclear power looking like a more attractive option to nervous policymakers, uranium could remain a very hot commodity in every sense.

Environmental campaigners and ethical investors may despair, but Britain’s own energy security review is likely to be a case in point and uranium prices could therefore have further to travel, dragging Yellow Cake’s NAV (and share price) higher along the way.

We’ll stay sweet on Yellow Cake. Hold.

Questor says: hold

Ticker: YCA

Share price at close: 411.5p

*The original version of this article quoted these numbers as amounts in £ rather than pounds in weight. We apologise for the error

Read the latest Questor column on telegraph.co.uk every Sunday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday from 5am.

Read Questor’s rules of investment before you follow our tips.