Race for City Hall: Polls narrow on final day as Sadiq Khan’s lead over Susan Hall shrinks to just 10 points

Polls in the mayoral race have narrowed on the final day of the campaign, putting Sadiq Khan just 10 points ahead of his rival Susan Hall as May 2 approaches. Photos: PA

Polls in the mayoral race have narrowed on the final day of the campaign, putting Sadiq Khan just 10 points ahead of his rival Susan Hall as May 2 approaches.

The Labour candidate for London mayor – who is campaigning for a record third term at City Hall – came in on 42 per cent, just 10 points ahead of his Conservative rival Susan Hall.

Former Harrow council leader Hall reached 32 per cent, according to fresh polling by Savanta for the independent Centre for London think tank.

The findings go against a YouGov poll from Tuesday – under a different methodology – which showed Khan on a 22-point lead over Hall, and a significant drop compared to the beginning of the race which saw him on a 25-point lead ahead of her.

But the final poll before the mayoral and London assembly elections still suggested Khan would come out on top, despite it being under first-past-the-post rules for the first time.

Chris Hopkins, Savanta’s political research director, said although there was still a “high level of uncertainty” around the contest: “Our final poll before Londoners choose their next mayor suggests the race has tightened in the last few days before polling day.

“The findings still suggest a closer race than many are bargaining for.”

He added: “While we still predict a broadly comfortable victory for Khan over Hall, our research has consistently suggested the current mayor has serious challenges as a candidate.

“Londoners seem divided on his time in office so far – and a different, more popular opponent could have made a difference.”

But Labour sources stressed how keen the party is to ensure they get out the vote, pointing out Khan had a strong lead in the final polls in 2021, before a much tighter election result.

The incumbent’s lead has tightened, dropping from 13 points in previous a poll to 10 points.

While Liberal Democrat candidate Rob Blackie is on 10 per cent, Savanta found, Green Party hopeful Zoë Garbett eight per cent and Reform UK’s Howard Cox is on three per cent.

There are also high levels of uncertainty, with 17 per cent of voters saying they are likely to change their mind before the election.

And voter apathy is a pressing issue for the capital, with 18 per cent of Londoners saying they either don’t know or don’t think there is an election.

Despite the fact the Electoral Commission has spent almost £7m on public awareness campaigns across England and Wales, almost a quarter – 22 per cent – of Londoners told pollsters they don’t need photo ID to vote. This was 31 per cent among younger people.

People were also divided over Khan’s performance, with 35 per cent reporting satisfaction with how he’s done, versus 40 per cent saying dissatisfied and just four per cent don’t know.

Antonia Jennings, Centre for London chief executive, said: “As we inch ever closer to polling day, we are seeing the race tighten between Khan and Hall. It doesn’t look like the incumbent Labour mayor will sweep away the competition with the lead initially expected.”

“As the polls narrow, it indicates the challenge Khan will face if elected. Running for an unprecedented third term, he is likely to be judged not on his manifesto like Hall, but on his widespread record in his last eight years as mayor.”

But she added: “However, we cannot discuss Khan’s record and disregard how centralised power is in the UK. Compared with other capital cities, London’s devolution deal is measly.

“Fiscal powers are particularly lacking, meaning London’s mayor remains heavily constrained by national government budgets. With each new poll, we have seen Londoners spotlight the same issues time and again: housing, the cost-of-living and crime.

“To enable our next mayor to properly tackle the problems facing London, we need devolution, to bring policymaking closer to the people it affects.”

Savanta conducted their research between April 26-30, and interviewed 1,532 Londoners aged 18 and over online. The data was weighted to be representative of all adults in London.