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Who will replace António Horta-Osório as Lloyd's CEO? Our predictions for the top job

Bank shot: Lloyds
Bank shot: Lloyds

The usual City gossips were quiet today - it is far from obvious who will get the job, or who might want it.

Running Lloyds Bank is certainly one of the biggest jobs in UK banking - it is also one of the hardest and it got harder still since Covid-19.

The pressure on the bank to treat small firms and mortgage borrowers well is intense. Regulators and politicians will have a close eye on how Lloyd’s behaves, with any sign that it is being beastly jumped upon.

It’s job, in the nation’s interest, is to keep struggling families in homes and struggling firms in business.

That might be a noble task but it’s not obviously a profitable one.

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Interest rates are going to be very low for a long time - perhaps decades, which means profit margins are thin.

Lloyds throws off plenty of cash, but it might be under pressure to keep that cash under the metaphorical mattress rather than splash it out in the dividends and share buybacks that would keep investors happy.

The share price is a sickly looking 32p, a reflection of City sentiment towards big banks.

Moreover, Lloyds is already so large it is hard for it to grow market share without attracting the attention of the watchdogs.

A big job then, for someone.

Here’s some runners and riders:

William Chalmers - insider who knows the course 3-1

Mark Bailie - been looking for a decent ride since leaving Bo 3-1

Alison Brittain - old hand, probably wants to get out of the diminished Whitbread 4-1

Alison Brittain is currently chief executive at Whitbread
Alison Brittain is currently chief executive at Whitbread

Vim Maru - another insider who know the fences pretty well, decade with Osorio 4-1

Jean-Pierre Mustier - fast-moving European thoroughbred much like the Osorio 10-1

Might Stephen Hester be tempted?
Might Stephen Hester be tempted?

Stephen Hester - been at RSA 6 years, thought to be keen to change stables 20-1

John Flint - relatively unfancied stallion after losing confidence of HSBC staff, but keen to make comeback 33-1

Nathan Bostock - meant to be leaving current role soon but believed to be sticking with Santander 33-1

Craig Donadlson - unfancied due to pulling up at Metro but highly thought of 66-1

Odd provided by Markets.com

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