Russian oil exports fall to their lowest level in a year as Moscow leans more on Asian buyers ahead of price cap plans

Russian President Vladimir Putin takes part in a news conference after an EU-Russia Summit in Brussels January 28, 2014. Putin said on Tuesday it would honor its obligations to lend Ukraine $15 billion and reduce its gas prices even if the opposition formed the next government. REUTERS/Yves Herman

• Russian seaborne oil exports fell to their lowest in a year in September, according to S&P Global.

• Moscow has been leaning more on Asian customers ahead of Western price cap plans.

• If implemented, the cap is estimated to leave Russia with an extra 2.5 million barrels a day of oil to offload.

Russian seaborne oil exports have fallen to their lowest level in a year, a sign that Moscow may be struggling as it leans more on Asian buyers ahead of price cap plans.

Exports of Russian crude slumped to an average 2.99 million barrels a day in September, according to data from S&P Global. That's a 290,000 barrels a day fewer than what was shipped in August, and the lowest amount of crude Russia has shipped out since September 2021, when energy markets were still battered from the pandemic.

Much of that decline can be attributed to Europe, which has been turning away from Moscow ahead of the European Union ban on Russian oil that will fully kick in by year-end. EU nations are looking to sign exemptions to that ban, but only as it conflicts with the plan to impose a price cap on Russian oil, which the G7 plans to roll out by the end of the year.

If implemented, the cap will further dent Russia's wartime revenue. S&P Global estimates the measure will leave Russia with a surplus of 2.5 million barrels a day of oil to hand off to other customers, upping the pressure to ship more crude to Asia while shipments to Europe are already starting to decline.

Crude exports to Europe clocked in below a million barrels a day in September – the first time they've dipped below that level since the pandemic – while China and India have upped their share of overall Russia oil purchases to 60%, compared to 54% in August. Russian oil shipments to Turkey have also risen 19%, making it Russia's third-largest oil customer.

The US is negotiating with Asian buyers like China and India on the price cap on Russia oil, although no clear cooperation has been reached. A US Treasury official said that recent talks with China and India on the price cap have been "positive," and the cap would allow countries to have more leverage and get better prices from suppliers.

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