UK markets closed
  • FTSE 100

    7,556.23
    -2.26 (-0.03%)
     
  • FTSE 250

    19,363.28
    -46.14 (-0.24%)
     
  • AIM

    853.32
    +2.76 (+0.32%)
     
  • GBP/EUR

    1.1660
    +0.0017 (+0.15%)
     
  • GBP/USD

    1.2296
    +0.0040 (+0.33%)
     
  • BTC-GBP

    13,839.88
    +2.64 (+0.02%)
     
  • CMC Crypto 200

    404.33
    +2.91 (+0.72%)
     
  • S&P 500

    4,071.70
    -4.87 (-0.12%)
     
  • DOW

    34,429.88
    +34.87 (+0.10%)
     
  • CRUDE OIL

    80.34
    -0.88 (-1.08%)
     
  • GOLD FUTURES

    1,797.30
    -3.80 (-0.21%)
     
  • NIKKEI 225

    27,777.90
    -448.18 (-1.59%)
     
  • HANG SENG

    18,675.35
    -61.09 (-0.33%)
     
  • DAX

    14,529.39
    +39.09 (+0.27%)
     
  • CAC 40

    6,742.25
    -11.72 (-0.17%)
     

Saputo Inc. (TSE:SAP) Stock Is Going Strong But Fundamentals Look Uncertain: What Lies Ahead ?

Most readers would already be aware that Saputo's (TSE:SAP) stock increased significantly by 29% over the past three months. But the company's key financial indicators appear to be differing across the board and that makes us question whether or not the company's current share price momentum can be maintained. Specifically, we decided to study Saputo's ROE in this article.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.

See our latest analysis for Saputo

How Is ROE Calculated?

The formula for ROE is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Saputo is:

5.5% = CA$360m ÷ CA$6.6b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2022).

The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. One way to conceptualize this is that for each CA$1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made CA$0.05 in profit.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

Saputo's Earnings Growth And 5.5% ROE

At first glance, Saputo's ROE doesn't look very promising. We then compared the company's ROE to the broader industry and were disappointed to see that the ROE is lower than the industry average of 8.5%. Given the circumstances, the significant decline in net income by 15% seen by Saputo over the last five years is not surprising. However, there could also be other factors causing the earnings to decline. Such as - low earnings retention or poor allocation of capital.

So, as a next step, we compared Saputo's performance against the industry and were disappointed to discover that while the company has been shrinking its earnings, the industry has been growing its earnings at a rate of 6.8% in the same period.

past-earnings-growth
past-earnings-growth

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. If you're wondering about Saputo's's valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.

Is Saputo Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

In spite of a normal three-year median payout ratio of 47% (that is, a retention ratio of 53%), the fact that Saputo's earnings have shrunk is quite puzzling. So there might be other factors at play here which could potentially be hampering growth. For example, the business has faced some headwinds.

Additionally, Saputo has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years, which means that the company's management is determined to pay dividends even if it means little to no earnings growth. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company over the next three years is expected to be approximately 39%.

Summary

On the whole, we feel that the performance shown by Saputo can be open to many interpretations. Even though it appears to be retaining most of its profits, given the low ROE, investors may not be benefitting from all that reinvestment after all. The low earnings growth suggests our theory correct. With that said, we studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that while the company has shrunk its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to grow in the future. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Join A Paid User Research Session
You’ll receive a US$30 Amazon Gift card for 1 hour of your time while helping us build better investing tools for the individual investors like yourself. Sign up here