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Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:SIGI) Stock Has Shown Weakness Lately But Financials Look Strong: Should Prospective Shareholders Make The Leap?

It is hard to get excited after looking at Selective Insurance Group's (NASDAQ:SIGI) recent performance, when its stock has declined 6.2% over the past month. However, a closer look at its sound financials might cause you to think again. Given that fundamentals usually drive long-term market outcomes, the company is worth looking at. In this article, we decided to focus on Selective Insurance Group's ROE.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.

See our latest analysis for Selective Insurance Group

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

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So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Selective Insurance Group is:

15% = US$428m ÷ US$2.9b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2021).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. Another way to think of that is that for every $1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn $0.15 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

Selective Insurance Group's Earnings Growth And 15% ROE

At first glance, Selective Insurance Group seems to have a decent ROE. Further, the company's ROE compares quite favorably to the industry average of 12%. Probably as a result of this, Selective Insurance Group was able to see a decent growth of 15% over the last five years.

As a next step, we compared Selective Insurance Group's net income growth with the industry, and pleasingly, we found that the growth seen by the company is higher than the average industry growth of 13%.

past-earnings-growth
past-earnings-growth

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. What is SIGI worth today? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether SIGI is currently mispriced by the market.

Is Selective Insurance Group Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

In Selective Insurance Group's case, its respectable earnings growth can probably be explained by its low three-year median payout ratio of 23% (or a retention ratio of 77%), which suggests that the company is investing most of its profits to grow its business.

Additionally, Selective Insurance Group has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years which means that the company is pretty serious about sharing its profits with shareholders. Based on the latest analysts' estimates, we found that the company's future payout ratio over the next three years is expected to hold steady at 20%. However, Selective Insurance Group's future ROE is expected to decline to 11% despite there being not much change anticipated in the company's payout ratio.

Conclusion

Overall, we are quite pleased with Selective Insurance Group's performance. In particular, it's great to see that the company is investing heavily into its business and along with a high rate of return, that has resulted in a sizeable growth in its earnings. Having said that, on studying current analyst estimates, we were concerned to see that while the company has grown its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to shrink in the future. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.