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In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But in any portfolio, there are likely to be some stocks that fall short of that benchmark. We regret to report that long term On the Beach Group plc (LON:OTB) shareholders have had that experience, with the share price dropping 31% in three years, versus a market return of about 26%. And more recent buyers are having a tough time too, with a drop of 20% in the last year. More recently, the share price has dropped a further 23% in a month.
With the stock having lost 8.5% in the past week, it's worth taking a look at business performance and seeing if there's any red flags.
On the Beach Group wasn't profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.
Over the last three years, On the Beach Group's revenue dropped 32% per year. That's definitely a weaker result than most pre-profit companies report. On the face of it we'd posit the share price fall of 10% compound, over three years is well justified by the fundamental deterioration. The key question now is whether the company has the capacity to fund itself to profitability, without more cash. The company will need to return to revenue growth as quickly as possible, if it wants to see some enthusiasm from investors.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. You can see what analysts are predicting for On the Beach Group in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market gained around 23% in the last year, On the Beach Group shareholders lost 20%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 5%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand On the Beach Group better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for On the Beach Group that you should be aware of before investing here.
On the Beach Group is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on GB exchanges.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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