China urged to set deadline for Philippines to withdraw from Second Thomas Shoal
Beijing should set a definitive time frame for Manila to withdraw from Second Thomas Shoal, a move that would be a big step towards ending the long-standing "cat-and-mouse game" over the contentious submerged reef, a leading Chinese maritime expert said.
Describing persistent confrontation over the shoal as "a bleeding wound", Wu Shicun, founder of the Hainan-based National Institute for South China Sea Studies, told Chinese news outlet Guancha there was an urgent need to conclusively settle escalating tensions surrounding the reef.
"China's delayed efforts to restore tranquillity on Second Thomas Shoal may embolden the Philippines to take risky actions, expanding its infringement activities in areas such as Sabina Shoal, Sandy Cay and Scarborough Shoal," Wu said in the interview published on Wednesday.
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He urged China to "diplomatically present a time frame to the Philippines for its withdrawal from Second Thomas Shoal" and said the plan should specify the dates for military personnel to withdraw and plans for humanitarian aid during the transition period.
Over the past year and a half, the waters surrounding Second Thomas Shoal - known as Renai Reef in Chinese and Ayungin Shoal in the Philippines - have been the stage for escalating tensions between Beijing and Manila.
The epicentre of the constant and increasingly fraught maritime stand-offs is a rusting World War II-era Philippine navy ship, the BRP Sierra Madre, which is a strategic military outpost manned by a small contingent of Philippine troops.
In his remarks, Wu suggested China take a firmer stance once the deadline expired. He said Beijing might need to take decisive action to "prevent and block the Philippines from engaging in provocative and status quo-altering activities", such as blocking maritime and airdropped resupplies to the reef, if Manila did not comply with the proposed time frame.
Beijing could impose a "temporary alert zone" in line with its Chinese coastguard law and new coastguard administrative procedures, outlining the area, duration, and management measures for the alert zone, according to Wu.
"After a certain period of blockade, the Philippine military personnel stationed at the reef will face a 'survival crisis'. China could then, from a humanitarian perspective, establish a 'special corridor' allowing the Philippines to retrieve its military personnel stationed there," he said.
Tensions flared between Beijing and Manila earlier this year when Beijing claimed it had reached an informal agreement permitting the Philippines to resupply the ship "out of humanitarian considerations".
The arrangement requires Manila to provide advance notice of resupply missions, accept Chinese on-site supervision and exclude the transfer of construction materials.
The Philippine government has since denied the existence of such an agreement, deepening their diplomatic rift.
Wu added that Beijing should also register its dissatisfaction with Manila through their bilateral and biannual diplomatic consultation mechanism established in 2017. The most recent talks under the mechanism were held this month.
"Through this active and operational dialogue framework, China must clearly convey to the Philippines that their actions, which extend beyond the agreed-upon consensus of 'humanitarian resupply only', are unacceptable," he said, adding that Manila's attempts to permanently fortify the shoal were also unacceptable to Beijing.
Furthermore, Wu said that staying transparent regarding their actions was also crucial, and Beijing could inform the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and other relevant parties through diplomatic channels beforehand.
"The aim is to clarify that China's actions are intended to restore Second Thomas Shoal to its original state, promptly end the stand-off, prevent accidental escalation and secure China's positive perception from public opinion and the international community," he said.
This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2024 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.
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