Speculators push long U.S. dollar bets to 11-month peak -CFTC, Reuters
(Adds details on dollar, yen, euro contracts, adds comments,
byline)
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, Dec 9 (Reuters) - Speculators increased positive
bets on the U.S. dollar for a third straight week, pushing net
longs to their highest since early January.
The value of the dollar's net long position rose to $28.14
billion in the week ended Dec. 6, from $24.82 billion in the
previous week, according to Reuters calculations and data from
the Commodity Futures Trading Commission released on Friday.
The continued rise in long dollar positioning is not a
surprise given expectations of higher inflation with increased
infrastructure spending under a Trump administration.
With (Other OTC: WWTH - news) more upbeat U.S. economic data including a generally
solid U.S. non-farm payrolls report for November, the Federal
Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates next week.
That expectation has underpinned the dollar for the past several
weeks, with the greenback posting a 3 percent gain so far this
year.
The focus now turns to the number of rate increases the Fed
could signal at the conclusion of the policy meeting on
Wednesday.
"There have actually been widespread improvements in the
U.S. economy with consumer spending up and inflation on the
rise," said Kathy Lien, managing director of FX strategy at BK
Asset Management in New York.
"The dollar will rise if the dot plot shows expectations for
more than two rate hikes in 2017. The last plot had Fed
Presidents looking for 50 basis points of tightening next year."
Net (LSE: 0LN0.L - news) shorts on the yen, meanwhile, rose to their largest
since December last year, at 33,937 contracts. Speculators
turned net short the yen last week after months of being long.
The yen has been engulfed in a Trump-inspired dollar rally.
The longer-term rate differentials between the U.S. and Japan
10-year notes continue to widen at more than 200 basis points,
the largest gap in favor of the U.S. dollar since 2010 and
supporting further gains in the greenback against the yen.
Euro short contracts, on the other hand, fell to 114,556,
their lowest since mid-October.
The euro retains a weak tone against the dollar after
Thursday's steep fall in the wake of the European Central Bank's
decision to extend its quantitative easing by nine months.
"Heavy losses yesterday and no real bounce into the end of
the week suggest euro/dollar may be on the cusp of another
biggish shunt lower," said Shaun Osborne, chief FX strategist,
at Scotiabank in Toronto.
The Reuters calculation for the aggregate U.S. dollar
position is derived from net positions of International Monetary
Market speculators in the yen, euro, sterling, Swiss franc and
Canadian and Australian dollars.
Japanese Yen (Contracts of 12,500,000 yen)
$3.722 billion
06 Dec 2016 Prior week
week
Long 74,367 72,124
Short 108,304 72,393
Net -33,937 -269
EURO (Contracts of 125,000 euros)
$15.346 billion
06 Dec 2016 Prior week
week
Long 123,390 136,108
Short 237,946 255,348
Net -114,556 -119,240
POUND STERLING (Contracts of 62,500 pounds sterling)
$6.119 billion
06 Dec 2016 Prior week
week
Long 43,169 50,806
Short 120,407 128,941
Net -77,238 -78,135
SWISS FRANC (Contracts of 125,000 Swiss francs)
$3.143 billion
06 Dec 2016 Prior week
week
Long 9,859 13,027
Short 35,256 37,361
Net -25,397 -24,334
CANADIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Canadian dollars)
$1.368 billion
06 Dec 2016 Prior week
week
Long 21,538 25,010
Short 39,696 43,586
Net -18,158 -18,576
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Aussie dollars)
$-1.557 billion
06 Dec 2016 Prior week
week
Long 48,274 54,791
Short 27,403 33,834
Net 20,871 20,957
MEXICAN PESO (Contracts of 500,000 pesos)
$1.326 billion
06 Dec 2016 Prior week
week
Long 18,619 19,314
Short 72,685 73,814
Net -54,066 -54,500
NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 New Zealand dollars)
$0.281 billion
06 Dec 2016 Prior week
week
Long 27,641 30,231
Short 31,593 32,103
Net -3,952 -1,872
(Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Editing by Tom Brown
and Andrew Hay)