Steady UK inflation leaves question mark over BoE rate action
* CPI unchanged at 5-year high of 3.0 pct in October
* BoE (Shenzhen: 000725.SZ - news) had expected inflation to peak at 3.2 pct
* Sterling drops, bond prices rise on doubts over rate rises
* Factory raw material price inflation lowest since July
2016
(Adds detail, economist reaction)
By David Milliken and Jonathan Cable
LONDON, Nov 14 (Reuters) - British inflation unexpectedly
held steady in October, wrong-footing the Bank of England and
raising fresh questions about how fast the central bank will
follow up on this month's interest rate hike.
The annual rate of consumer price inflation was unchanged
from September's five-and-a-half-year high of 3.0 percent,
official data showed.
When the BoE raised rates for the first time in a decade in
early November, it said it expected inflation would hit 3.2
percent in October before starting to fall slowly towards its 2
percent target.
"Red faces all round as UK inflation fails to rise as widely
expected, not least by the Bank of England," said Chris
Williamson, chief business economist at financial data company
IHS Markit (Stuttgart: A1139A - news) .
Sterling fell against the dollar and British government bond
prices rose as markets lengthened the odds slightly on a new BoE
rate hike in the foreseeable future.
Most economists polled by Reuters after the Nov. 2 rate rise
said they did not expect the BoE to raise rates again until
2019. On Tuesday financial markets - which tend to take a more
hawkish view - priced in no increase until late 2018.
While inflation in many developed countries remains weak, in
Britain it has surged from just 0.5 percent at the time of the
June 2016 vote to leave the European Union as the fall in the
pound pushed up the cost of imported goods.
October's data showed that lower fuel price inflation was
offset by the biggest rise in food prices since September 2013.
Many economists have said this month's rate rise was
unnecessary because of the slowing domestic economy, weak
productivity and wage growth, and uncertainty about Britain's
future trade relationship with the EU.
Economists polled by Reuters expect wage data due on
Wednesday to show pay growth stuck at just over 2 percent.
DATA DILEMMA
The Bank argues that leaving the EU will damage Britain's
ability to grow as fast as before without generating excess
inflation, and that the lowest unemployment rate since 1975
makes labour shortages and a rebound in wage growth a risk.
This month's rate rise was not aimed at directly curbing the
recent surge in inflation but at ensuring above-target inflation
does not become too entrenched in Britain, especially as the
United States and euro zone begin to tighten monetary policy
which could further weaken the pound.
The BoE has said it still expects inflation to be slightly
above target in three years' time. On Tuesday Carney reiterated
that he was allowing inflation longer than normal to return to
target due to the Brexit uncertainties.
Paul Diggle, a senior economist at Aberdeen Asset
Management, said inflation would pick up again due to rising oil
prices and residual effects of the weaker pound.
"The Bank of England is stuck between a rock and a hard
place. On balance, we think (it) will have to hike interest
rates at least once more next year."
Retail price inflation, a measure used to calculate payments
on government bonds and many commercial contracts, hit a near
six-year high of 4.0 percent, bad news for Hammond who is due to
announce a budget plan on Nov. 22.
But other data showed that underlying price pressures are
easing. Costs of manufacturers' raw materials rose at their
slowest pace since July 2016, a month after the Brexit vote.
"Our baseline case is that CPI inflation has now topped
out," Investec (LSE: INVP.L - news) economist Philip Shaw said.
(Reporting by David Milliken; editing by John Stonestreet and
William Schomberg)