Advertisement
UK markets closed
  • FTSE 100

    8,433.76
    +52.41 (+0.63%)
     
  • FTSE 250

    20,645.38
    +114.08 (+0.56%)
     
  • AIM

    789.87
    +6.17 (+0.79%)
     
  • GBP/EUR

    1.1622
    +0.0011 (+0.09%)
     
  • GBP/USD

    1.2525
    +0.0001 (+0.01%)
     
  • Bitcoin GBP

    48,734.01
    -1,341.15 (-2.68%)
     
  • CMC Crypto 200

    1,260.38
    -97.63 (-7.19%)
     
  • S&P 500

    5,222.68
    +8.60 (+0.16%)
     
  • DOW

    39,512.84
    +125.08 (+0.32%)
     
  • CRUDE OIL

    78.20
    -1.06 (-1.34%)
     
  • GOLD FUTURES

    2,366.90
    +26.60 (+1.14%)
     
  • NIKKEI 225

    38,229.11
    +155.13 (+0.41%)
     
  • HANG SENG

    18,963.68
    +425.87 (+2.30%)
     
  • DAX

    18,772.85
    +86.25 (+0.46%)
     
  • CAC 40

    8,219.14
    +31.49 (+0.38%)
     

Sterling steady ahead of Bank of England "Super Thursday"

* Raft of Bank of England publications due on Thursday

* Market wonders if pound's strength will delay rate rise

* Wage growth points to strengthening economy

By Patrick Graham

LONDON, Aug 3 (Reuters) - Sterling trod water, less than 1 percent off a 7-1/2-year high against the euro on Monday, with all eyes on a bumper day of data and Bank of England publications on Thursday that could give the pound another boost.

Sterling has risen steadily for four months against the single currency, even as the euro stabilised against the dollar.

At the heart of that move was a revival of speculation that the Bank of England could raise interest rates at the end of this year or early next, having previously pushed those expectations way out into 2016.

ADVERTISEMENT

Results of Thursday's rate decision - published for the first time on the same day - are expected to show at least two, or possibly three, policy committee members voting in favour of a rate hike.

"The speed of the pick-up in UK wage growth is likely to result in a couple of MPC (KOSDAQ: 050540.KQ - news) members voting for an immediate hike," said Kit Juckes, a strategist with Societe Generale (Swiss: 519928.SW - news) in London.

"That won't be a surprise but a hawkish tone to the minutes and to the Inflation Report could see the front end of the UK price in a slightly faster pace of hikes and the euro drift lower against the pound."

Sterling was flat at 70.28 pence per euro and broadly unchanged at $1.5621. It eased back off a more than seven-year high against a basket of currencies at the end of last month.

With volumes minimal, there was little or no reaction to a survey of manufacturing sector purchasing managers, traditionally less important than a similar measure in the service sector.

As the Bank of England moves closer to raising rates for the first time since 2007, the strength of sterling is one factor causing disagreement among its policymakers over when to pull the trigger.

While the Federal Reserve can afford to ride out concerns over the strength of the dollar given the U.S. economy's mostly inward focus, the strength of the pound is crucial to UK businesses for whom the euro zone and China are main markets.

As such, this year's gains should ease any upward pressure on wages, demand and inflation. Conversely, any further rise in rates would run the risk of sending sterling into the stratosphere and exporters screaming.

"Whenever the Fed or the BoE (Shenzhen: 200725.SZ - news) thinks about tightening conditions, the market does it for them and then they're back to square one," says Matt Cobon, Head (Other OTC: HEDYY - news) of Government and FX Investments at Columbia Threadneedle Investments in London.

Markets have ramped up expectations of a rise in British rates several times in the past three years only to be disappointed.

"Clearly the euro zone has been a net drag on the situation for the BoE. It suffers from a similar situation to the U.S. The difference is it doesn't have the pricing power of the dollar," Cobon said.