Yahoo Finance Stevanato Group S.p.A. Just Missed EPS By 34%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
It's been a sad week for Stevanato Group S.p.A. (NYSE:STVN), who've watched their investment drop 18% to US$21.82 in the week since the company reported its first-quarter result. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of €236m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 34% to hit €0.07 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
View our latest analysis for Stevanato Group
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Stevanato Group's nine analysts is for revenues of €1.13b in 2024. This reflects a reasonable 4.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be €0.50, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €1.19b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.59 in 2024. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a real cut to earnings per share estimates.
The consensus price target fell 16% to US$29.37, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Stevanato Group at US$37.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$23.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Stevanato Group shareholders.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Stevanato Group's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 5.8% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 14% over the past three years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 6.5% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Stevanato Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Sadly, they also downgraded their revenue forecasts, but the business is still expected to grow at roughly the same rate as the industry itself. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Stevanato Group's future valuation.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Stevanato Group. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Stevanato Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Stevanato Group (at least 1 which is concerning) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
