From the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade to football, millions of Americans are preparing their television lineup for gatherings at home with family and friends.
Thanksgiving programming on Wall Street, however, looks a bit different, with some analysts instead watching the stocks of companies behind this year’s Turkey Day menu.
“Hormel is probably your biggest exposure given the turkey segment they have,” Bank of America analyst Peter Galbo told Yahoo Finance Live Tuesday.
“In terms of best investments, we really like Kraft Heinz – you’re getting some exposure on stuffing, but really on the condiments and sauces side,” he added. “Kraft Heinz was out of stock last year on a lot of these items, and is looking to rebound this year in a pretty strong way.”
With the Thanksgiving cost index up 20.1%, the highest since 1986, a rise in food and beverage prices may push consumers to shift to promotional items or trade down from private label offerings, per BofA.
The bank deemed Hormel Foods Corp (HRL), Campbell Soup Company (CPB), Conagra Brands (CAG), McCormick & Company (MKC), Cal-Maine Foods (CALM), and Duckhorn Portfolio (NAPA) as others within its coverage with the greatest exposure to Thanksgiving, based on a joint survey with Nielsen data, American Farm Bureau (AFB) data, and Morning Consult.
Bank of America's list was based on the most popular Thanksgiving dishes from a FiveThirtyEight poll: gravy, ham, stuffing, mashed potatoes, sweet potatoes with marshmallows, mac and cheese, green bean casserole, pie, and rolls were the winning foods.
"With promotions becoming more of a focus on consumer minds as they plan for holiday shopping, the typical uptick of promotions in November and December can be expected and benefit companies that provide more promotional offerings over the holidays," BofA said. The firm also noted food retailers including Aldi, Lidl, BJ's, Walmart and Kroger have announced Thanksgiving promotions, with Aldi slashing up to 30% of prices to return costs to 2019 levels, while Lidl is offering a $30 10-person meal promotion.
Additionally, with inflation in the "Food at Home" component of the government's broader measure of consumer prices higher than the "Food Away from Home" category, some Americans this year may also turn to dining out this Thanksgiving rather than gathering at home, which is traditionally more commonplace for this holiday.
Based on the government's Consumer Price Index for September and October, the rate of inflation for food at home outpaced dining out during both months. Bank of America noted the relative cost of eating out this year is more favorable this year, something that has occurred in only four of the last 28 years.
Alexandra Semenova is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter @alexandraandnyc