Tesla’s $939 Billion Valuation Lead Over Toyota Is Almost Gone

(Bloomberg) -- Two and a half years ago, Tesla Inc. was worth almost $1 trillion more than Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s second-most valuable automaker.

Most Read from Bloomberg

• Javier Milei Fuels Wild Rally That Makes Peso No. 1 in World

• Plunging Home Prices, Fleeing Companies: Austin’s Glow Is Fading

• Huawei’s New Phone Runs Latest Version of Made-in-China Chip

• US Economy Slows and Inflation Jumps, Damping Soft-Landing Hopes

• Alphabet Beats Revenue Estimates as AI Fuels Cloud Growth

Lately, that lead has been shrinking fast.

Tesla’s edge over Toyota narrowed to about $83 billion before the start of regular US trading Tuesday. After the close, the electric-vehicle maker is expected to report its first decline in quarterly revenue in four years and a 40% plunge in operating earnings.

Read More: Tesla Stock Is in ‘No Man’s Land’ Ahead of Earnings

Tesla’s market value lead over Toyota peaked at $939 billion in early November 2021, just after a massive order from Hertz Global Holdings Inc. sent the EV manufacturer’s valuation soaring past $1 trillion for the first time. Hertz went on to buy fewer Teslas than planned and still got burned by Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk’s price cuts before starting to unwind its bet late last year.

Toyota has drawn criticism for biding its time on cars entirely powered by batteries and wagering that consumers will be more open to its gas-electric hybrids. Its strategy has paid off in recent months as EV sales growth has slowed.

“Tesla has been a master of understanding that the market favors narratives over the short term,” said David Wagner, a portfolio manager at Aptus Capital Advisors. “But more recently, as the tide retreated, the company has started to show that the overall growth profile may not be as robust as originally thought.”

Toyota has been the world’s top-selling automaker for four years running, delivering 11.2 million cars and trucks in 2023. That’s more than six times the 1.81 million vehicles Tesla sold last year.

The Japanese company’s shares are up 36% this year, lifting its market capitalization to ¥57.28 trillion ($370 billion).

Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek

• US White-Collar Job Growth Stalls, Even in Pandemic Boomtowns

• Caught Between the US and China, a Powerful AI Upstart Chooses Sides

• How North Korea’s Man in the West Ran Afoul of US Authorities

• Studio Behind Dune Eyes Growth, Even Without a Paramount Merger

• A Hedge Fund Billionaire’s Cash Helped Fund a ‘Predatory’ Lender

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.