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Tesla China Shipments Expected to Slump for Fourth Time in 2024

(Bloomberg) -- Tesla Inc. suffered a 24.2% year-on-year fall in shipments from its factory in Shanghai, marking the fourth time this year output has fallen for the electric car leader amid a price war in China.

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Deliveries of Tesla Model 3 and Model Y cars declined to 71,007 units in June, according to Bloomberg calculations based on preliminary data released by China’s Passenger Car Association on Tuesday. Shipments were down 2.2% on May.

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The drop comes ahead of closely watched global second-quarter production and delivery figures for Tesla, due later on Tuesday in the US. The lower output in China, the world’s biggest EV market, will add to the strain Elon Musk’s company is under worldwide as EV sales growth slows.

Analysts project Tesla will hand over 439,302 EVs in the second quarter, marking a 5.8% drop from a year ago and a second consecutive quarterly decline.

More broadly, new-energy vehicle sales in China are expected to rise 28% last month from June 2023, the preliminary PCA data show, as subsidies unveiled in April for trade-in cars gradually came into effect.

Total shipments of new-energy cars were projected to reach 970,000 units in June, an increase of 8% from the month prior.

Shenzhen-based BYD Co. led the jump with record passenger vehicle sales of 340,211 units. Li Auto Inc. delivered 47,774 cars, mainly thanks to strong traction from its recently unveiled extended-range electric five-seater L6 model.

Nio Inc. and Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd.’s Zeekr brand both delivered record highs as well, each with monthly sales of more than 20,000 cars.

China announced a one-off subsidy of as much as 10,000 yuan ($1,400) in April to consumers who trade in their old vehicles and buy a newer model that meets certain emissions standards, and there have been additional incentives from various local municipalities. That’s fueled consumers’ willingness to buy a new car and helped temporarily stabilize car prices, PCA said.

PCA didn’t break down Tesla’s domestic sales versus its exports in the preliminary data, but the US automaker typically focuses more on local deliveries in the last month of each quarter.

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