The most you can lose on any stock (assuming you don't use leverage) is 100% of your money. But when you pick a company that is really flourishing, you can make more than 100%. For example, the Avantax, Inc. (NASDAQ:AVTA) share price has soared 104% in the last three years. Most would be happy with that. In more good news, the share price has risen 12% in thirty days. But the price may well have benefitted from a buoyant market, since stocks have gained 5.7% in the last thirty days.
So let's assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 3 years and see if they've moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.
Given that Avantax only made minimal earnings in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue to gauge its business development. As a general rule, we think this kind of company is more comparable to loss-making stocks, since the actual profit is so low. For shareholders to have confidence a company will grow profits significantly, it must grow revenue.
Avantax's revenue trended up 5.9% each year over three years. That's not a very high growth rate considering it doesn't make profits. In contrast, the stock has popped 27% per year in that time - an impressive result. Shareholders should be pretty happy with that, although interested investors might want to examine the financial data more closely to see if the gains are really justified. It seems likely that the market is pretty optimistic about Avantax, given it is losing money.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on Avantax
A Different Perspective
It's nice to see that Avantax shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 29% over the last year. That's better than the annualised return of 0.5% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Avantax you should know about.
There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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