While JD.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:JD) shareholders are probably generally happy, the stock hasn't had particularly good run recently, with the share price falling 21% in the last quarter. But don't let that distract from the very nice return generated over three years. To wit, the share price did better than an index fund, climbing 52% during that period.
Although JD.com has shed CN¥10b from its market cap this week, let's take a look at its longer term fundamental trends and see if they've driven returns.
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During the three years of share price growth, JD.com actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) drop 19% per year.
So we doubt that the market is looking to EPS for its main judge of the company's value. Therefore, we think it's worth considering other metrics as well.
It may well be that JD.com revenue growth rate of 22% over three years has convinced shareholders to believe in a brighter future. If the company is being managed for the long term good, today's shareholders might be right to hold on.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
JD.com is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. You can see what analysts are predicting for JD.com in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
Investors should note that there's a difference between JD.com's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. We note that JD.com's TSR, at 55% is higher than its share price return of 52%. When you consider it hasn't been paying a dividend, this data suggests shareholders have benefitted from a spin-off, or had the opportunity to acquire attractively priced shares in a discounted capital raising.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market lost about 17% in the twelve months, JD.com shareholders did even worse, losing 43%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 6% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that JD.com is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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