TREASURIES-Benchmark yields fall to near 2-week low on weak U.S. inflation data
* 10-year yields fall to lowest level since Aug. 1
* Retail sales, producer price data miss expectations
* Investors reduce expectations for Fed rate hike
* Yield decline exacerbated by fall in dollar vs yen
(Updates to afternoon trading)
By Dion Rabouin
NEW YORK, Aug 12 (Reuters) - Benchmark U.S (Other OTC: UBGXF - news) . Treasury yields
fell to their lowest level in nearly two weeks on Friday after
weaker-than-expected readings on U.S. retail sales and producer
prices suggested U.S. inflation could be slowing, cutting
expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise overnight interest
rates.
Retail sales were flat for July, missing economists'
expectations for a modest 0.4 percent rise, and producer prices
recorded their biggest drop in nearly a year last month on
declining costs for services and energy products.
"The relationship is pretty straightforward, with low
inflation and low growth comes lower interest rates," said Guy
LeBas, chief fixed income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott
LLC in Philadelphia.
Fed fund futures prices on Friday showed investors reduced
their bets that the Fed would tighten monetary policy before the
end of the year. Traders see a 43 percent chance of a rate hike
by the Fed's December meeting, versus a 52 percent chance on
Thursday, according to CME Group (Kuala Lumpur: 7018.KL - news) 's FedWatch tool.
Yields on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes fell
to their lowest level since Aug. 1 after the data, at 1.48
percent. The 30-year Treasury bond hit its lowest
yield since Aug. 5, at 2.21 percent.
The 10-year note was last up 16/32 in price for a yield of
1.52 percent, down more than 5 basis points from its late
Thursday close. The 30-year Treasury bond rose 1-4/32 in price
to yield 2.24 percent, about 5 basis points lower than
Thursday's close.
The move lower in yield following the data's release was
exaggerated by buying of the Japanese yen, LeBas said.
Longer-dated Treasury yields have moved largely in concert with
the yen in recent months, dropping as the dollar has
declined against the Japanese currency.
U.S. Treasuries have attracted more overseas investors as
government debt in other developed markets like Japan has moved
to yield negative interest rates at maturities up to 10 years.
Ten-year Japanese government bonds currently yield -0.101
percent, meaning investors lose money if they hold them to
maturity.
(Reporting by Dion Rabouin; Editing by Dan Grebler and Leslie
Adler)