TREASURIES-Prices rise as risk appetite slides with weak stocks, oil
* Ten-year yields could fall to 1.15 to 1.10 percent range
-SocGen (Paris: FR0000130809 - news)
* U.S (Other OTC: UBGXF - news) . yields edge higher after upbeat U.S. housing starts
(Adds comment, updates prices)
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, July 19 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices
gained on Tuesday as risk appetite waned following declines in
stocks, hurt by the drop in oil prices as well as soft consumer
sentiment data in Germany.
Yields on U.S. 10-year notes and 30-year bonds fell as a
result after three days of gains, while those on the short end
of the curve were mixed.
A coup attempt may have been averted in Turkey, but the
ramifications, including a purge of thousands of civil servants
and military personnel and its impact on overall global
sentiment, have prompted investors to get off risky holdings and
turn to the safest of assets, analysts said.
"The market was complacent about Turkey and so we had some
sell-off yesterday," said Jim Vogel, interest rates strategist
at FTN Financial in Memphis.
He added that investors are realizing that there are still
several unknowns in the global economic and political arena and
these worries have prompted a move back to sovereigns, including
Treasuries.
U.S. stocks were mostly lower on Tuesday, in line
with overall weakness in global equities. Global bond yields
were also lower in general, with German 10-year bunds
at -0.090 percent.
Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, did inch
higher after data showed U.S. housing starts rose more than
expected in June, while building permits increased 1.5 percent
last month.
"U.S. data since the non-farm payrolls report for June has
been better than expected and so that has resulted in slightly
higher yields," said Bruno Braizinha, interest rates strategist
at Societe Generale (Swiss: 519928.SW - news) in New York.
"But this overwhelming demand for Treasuries is sure to keep
yields even lower," he added.
Demand for Treasuries in almost all auctions and in the
secondary market has been robust given negative yields in major
economies such as Japan and Germany, analysts said.
Societe Generale, in a recent research note, suggested that
given investors' healthy appetite for Treasuries, it estimated
that U.S. 10-year yields could fall to the 1.15 to 1.10 percent
range.
FTN's Vogel said once the bulk of the U.S. corporate bond
supply and the global or U.S. economy gets hit with negative
surprises in August, he could see 10-year yields hitting 1.25
percent.
In late trading, benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury notes
were up 8/32 in price for a yield of 1.557 percent,
down from 1.587 percent late on Monday.
U.S. 30-year bond prices were higher as well,
up 19/32 in price, yielding 2.2746 percent, down from 2.302
percent late Monday.
U.S. two-year notes were little changed in
price, with a yield of 0.693 percent, while U.S. five-year notes
were up 3/32 in price, yielding 1.11 percent.
July 19 Tuesday 3:09PM New York / 1909 GMT
Price
US T BONDS SEP6 172-7/32 0.65625
10YR TNotes SEP6 132-64/256 0.21875
Price Current Net Change
Yield % (bps)
Three-month bills 0.32 0.3247 -0.002
Six-month bills 0.425 0.4318 -0.005
Two-year note 99-222/256 0.6938 0.004
Three-year note 99-196/256 0.8296 -0.013
Five-year note 100-14/256 1.1136 -0.016
Seven-year note 99-252/256 1.3773 -0.026
10-year note 100-156/256 1.5578 -0.029
30-year bond 104-224/256 2.2739 -0.028
DOLLAR SWAP SPREADS
Last (bps) Net Change
(bps)
U.S. 2-year dollar swap 20.75 0.00
spread
U.S. 3-year dollar swap 13.75 1.00
spread
U.S. 5-year dollar swap -1.00 1.25
spread
U.S. 10-year dollar swap -13.50 1.25
spread
U.S. 30-year dollar swap -44.75 1.00
spread
(Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Editing by James
Dalgleish and Alan Crosby)