TREASURIES-U.S. bond prices slip in light pre-Christmas trade
* Benchmark yields hold close to three-month highs
* Yield curve stabilizes after flattening on Fed tapering
* Durable goods orders grew more than forecast in November
* U.S. bond trading to end early, to close Christmas Day
By Richard Leong
NEW YORK, Dec 24 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries prices fell on
Tuesday with benchmark yields hovering near three-month highs as
investors trimmed their bond holdings ahead of a shortened
session before Christmas.
The bond market will stop trading early at 2 p.m. EST (Other OTC: ECPCY - news) (1900
GMT), and will be closed Wednesday.
Worries over the timing when the Federal Reserve might raise
short-term interest rates after it stops buying bonds have
bogged down the market, especially among medium-term issues.
A stronger-than-expected report on durable goods orders
supported the view the U.S. economy might be gathering some
momentum into early 2014, raising the risk the U.S. central bank
would accelerate its reduction of bond purchases.
The news durables goods rose 3.5 percent last month spurred
selling in longer-dated Treasuries, which the Fed has targeted
to hold down mortgage rates and other long-term borrowing costs
to stimulate the economy.
"The path of least resistance right now is lower bond prices
and higher yields," said John Brady, managing director of
interest rate futures sales at R.J. O'Brien and Associates in
Chicago.
On light trading volume, benchmark 10-year Treasury notes
fell 10/32 in price to yield 2.964 percent, up more
than 3 basis points from late on Monday. The 10-year yield was 4
basis points short of the two-year high set in September.
Thirty-year bonds declined 21/32 in price,
yielding 3.881 percent, up about 4 basis points from late on
Monday.
The yield gap between five-year and 30-year
Treasuries, which is seen as gauge of traders' view on changes
in the Fed's interest rate policy and its bond purchase program,
widened to 2.16 percent from Monday's 2.15 percent, which was
its tightest level since September.
A sharp narrowing of the yield differences between medium-
and long-dated Treasuries since last week signaled a combination
of worries about a rate hike not too long after the Fed ends its
purchase program and doubts about the Fed's communication as an
effective policy tool.
The Fed said last Wednesday it will pare its monthly
purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities in
January by $10 billion to $75 billion.
Through a statement released following a two-day policy
meeting, the Fed aimed to mitigate its tapering of the bond
purchase program with a commitment to keep short-term rates near
zero if unemployment were to stay high and inflation were stuck
below its 2 percent target, analysts said.
The futures market, however, continued to signal traders'
anxiety about the Fed possibly raising policy rates earlier than
what it suggested last week.
Federal funds futures implied traders are pricing in a 56
percent chance of a rate hike in June 2015, up from 54 percent
on Monday and 39 percent a month ago, according to CME Group (Kuala Lumpur: 7018.KL - news) 's
FedWatch, which computes traders' expectations of the fed funds
rate that the Fed influences through monetary policy.
The rise in bond yields has raised home finance costs,
reducing mortgage activity in the latest week.
The Mortgage Bankers Association said on Tuesday its index
on weekly application activity fell 6.3 percent to the lowest
level in 13 years as the average interest rate on 30-year
mortgages edged up to its highest level in three months.