TREASURIES-U.S. bond yields bounce off 3-month lows as rally pauses
* Yields edge up from three-month lows as recent buying
fades
* Data suggest sluggish growth, support view on Fed stimulus
* Investors snap up $7 billion in 30-year TIPS supply
* Fed buys $1.56 billion bonds due 2038-2043
By Karen Brettell and Richard Leong
NEW YORK, Oct (KOSDAQ: 039200.KQ - news) 24 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries yields edged up
from three-month lows on Thursday as buying tied to the view the
Federal Reserve will not shrink its bond-purchase program until
next year faded.
The bond market rally paused as benchmark yields struggled
to stay below 2.50 percent since Wednesday.
"That's a pretty big hurdle for the bond market technically.
A lot of the delayed tapering has been priced in," said Anthony
Valeri, fixed income strategist at LPL Financial (NasdaqGS: LPLA - news) in San Diego.
Ten-year Treasury note yield had fallen 11 basis
points the prior two sessions after a government report on
Tuesday showed employers hired fewer workers than expected in
September, stoking fears the economy was slowing even before the
government's 16-day shutdown.
This disruption that stemmed from a Washington budget
impasse, while seen harmful the economy, has spurred the view
the Fed policy-makers will not change its $85 billion monthly
bond purchases in a bid to avoid further damage to the recovery
and investor confidence.
On the other hand, some Fed officials have acknowledged the
declining benefits of ongoing policy and growing risk for the
central bank to hold these bonds for a protracted period.
Still, policy-makers who will meet next week have said
possible changes to its third round of quantitative easing are
very dependent on economic data, though over the coming months
they are likely to be skewed by the effects of the government
shutdown, limiting insight into the actual state of the economy
and to what degree the shutdown and the fight over raising the
debt ceiling may have harmed growth.
"What we've been seeing since the government shutdown and
debt ceiling was resolved is a desire to jump back into
Treasuries," said Jason Rogan, managing director in Treasuries
trading at Guggenheim Partners in New York. "Most market
participants are of the mind that the Fed is on hold for the
foreseeable future."
Global economic indicators pointed to slowing growth on
Thursday. U.S. manufacturing output fell for the first time in
four years while the euro zone economy lost momentum, surveys on
Thursday showed.
Investors will be watching for any new information about Fed
policy when the U.S. central bank meets next Tuesday and
Wednesday, although it is seen as unlikely to reduce its monthly
QE3 bond purchases until March.
"Until we get more information, the market is uncertain
where to go," said Aaron Kohli, interest rate strategist at BNP (Paris: FR0000131104 - news)
Paribas in New York.
Benchmark 10-year Treasuries traded down 8/32 in
price to yield 2.514 percent, up 3 basis points from late on
Wednesday. The 10-year yield fell to a three-month low of 2.471
percent on Wednesday. It has declined from 3.00 percent on Sept.
5, before the Fed surprised investors by keeping the size of its
purchase program unchanged.
Yields have retraced about half of their increase in
reaction to Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke hinting, back in May, the
Fed might reduce its bond purchases by late this year.
The Fed bought $1.56 billion in bonds due from 2038 and 2043
on Thursday as part of its ongoing purchase program.
The government sold $7 billion more of a 30-year TIPS issue
originally issued in February at an auction on Thursday.
The supply fetched the strongest demand in a year, resulting
in a yield of 1.330 percent, roughly 2 basis points below what
traders had expected.
"The Fed is on hold, but it's less likely to affect a
30-year bond," BNP Paribas (Milan: BNP.MI - news) ' Kohli said.
The second reopening of this TIPS issue due in February 2043
enlarged its outstanding amount to $23 billion.
The Treasury said on Thursday it will sell $96 billion in
new coupon-bearing supply next week, including $32 billion in
two-year notes on Monday, $35 billion in five-year notes on
Tuesday and $29 billion in seven-year notes on Wednesday.