TREASURIES-U.S. yields fall after Summers quits pursuit for Fed chief post
* Yellen now seen as front-runner as next Fed chief
* U.S./Russian pact on Syria seen paring safe-haven bids for
bonds
* Futures signal traders pushing out timing on rate hike
By Richard Leong
NEW YORK, Sept 16 (Reuters) - Yields on U.S. government debt
fell on Monday to their lowest levels so far in September as
news Larry Summers withdrew from possible nomination as Federal
Reserve chief inspired bond buying from investors who had feared
more restrictive policies if he were to head the central bank.
This surprising weekend development, which came two days
before Fed policymakers meet and coincided with the five-year
anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, was widely
perceived as positive for bonds and stocks.
Traders now expect current Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen the
front-runner to succeed Ben Bernanke, who will likely step down
in January. Yellen is expected to continue the Fed's likely
slow, cautious approach to reduce its current bond purchase
stimulus, known as QE3.
"Assuming Janet Yellen moves to the fore, it should reduce
uncertainty across markets, increasing the likelihood of
continuity at the Fed and an ultra-smooth transition," said
Robert Tipp, chief investment strategist with Prudential Fixed
Income in New Jersey.
A Yellen-led Fed would likely mean the U.S. central bank
will take its time to raise short-term rates, even after it
halts QE3.
This shift in thinking about Fed leadership manifested with
the sharp drop in yields in short-dated Treasuries, which
earlier this month rose to their highest levels since May 2011,
partly on worries over Summers as the next Fed chief.
Fed policymakers will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday, when
Wall Street analysts anticipate they will decide on shrinking
their current monthly $85 billion in purchases of Treasuries and
mortgage-backed securities.
News of Summers' withdrawal for consideration as Fed
chairman was mitigated by a pact between the United States and
Russia to secure and rid Syria of its chemical weapons under
international supervision. Fears over a possible U.S. military
strike against Syria had stoked safe-haven demand for bonds.
On the open market, the yield on two-year Treasury
fell about 4 basis points from late Friday to 0.391
percent after hitting 0.375 percent earlier in overseas trading,
which was the lowest level in about 2-1/2 weeks.
Longer-dated yields fell sharply, too. Benchmark 10-year
yield declined 8 basis points to 2.805 percent, near
its session low and the lowest in two weeks.
In the futures market, traders dialed back expectations the
Fed will soon move away from its current near-zero interest rate
policy adopted in December 2008, at the height of global credit
crisis that caused the share price of the Primary Reserve Fund
to fall below $1, or "break the buck."
The demise of the U.S. money market mutual fund was seen as
a watershed moment during the financial crisis that caused the
Fed and other central banks to flood the banking system with
cash to avert a massive global market collapse.
Federal funds futures implied traders priced in a 61 percent
chance of the central bank hiking rates at the end of 2014
, down from 68 percent on Friday, according to CME Group (Kuala Lumpur: 7018.KL - news) 's
FedWatch, which calculates traders' view on Fed policy.