TREASURIES-U.S. yields fall as traders bet on gradual rate rise
* Latest U.S (Other OTC: UBGXF - news) . data support view on modest economic growth
* Fed's Dudley remains upbeat on U.S. jobs market
* Futures imply low probability Fed raising rates in
September
* U.S. sells $14 bln 5-year TIPS supply at negative yield
(Updates trading, adds quote)
By Richard Leong
NEW YORK, Aug 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields fell on
Thursday on bets the Federal Reserve is in no hurry to raise
interest rates with domestic inflation stuck below its 2 percent
goal and uncertainty about global risks to economic growth at
home.
The decline in yields followed Wednesday's release of
minutes of the central bank's July 26-27 policy meeting in which
policymakers said they wanted to "leave their policy options
open."
Thursday's data on new unemployment claims and Mid-Atlantic
business activity from the Philadelphia Fed supported the notion
of a continued economic expansion, but not one that is strong
enough to handle a steady string of rate increases, analysts and
investors said.
"It's a long way from what the Fed had signaled back in
December. It's about a rate hike, not a rate-hike campaign,"
said Matt Toms, head of public fixed income at Voya Investment
Management in Atlanta (BSE: 532759.BO - news) .
On Thursday, New York Fed President William Dudley remained
upbeat about the labor market, reinforcing his view earlier this
week that the Fed is ready to raise rates.
Interest rate futures implied traders see a 14 percent
chance the Fed will raise rates at its Sept. 20-21 policy
meeting, unchanged from Wednesday's close, according to Reuters
data.
The yield on two-year Treasury notes, which are
sensitive to traders' views on Fed policy, was down nearly 3
basis points at 0.710 percent. On Wednesday, it reached a
three-week peak of 0.774 percent shortly before the release of
the FOMC minutes.
Benchmark 10-year Treasury notes were up 8/32 in
price to yield 1.534 percent, down 1 basis point from Wednesday,
while the 30-year bond was up 10/32 in price for a
yield of 2.258 percent, down 1.5 basis points.
Bond yields will likely stay in a narrow range in advance of
a meeting of global central bankers at Jackson Hole, Wyoming,
next week. Fed Chair Janet Yellen, who is scheduled to attend
the annual event, is expected to reinforce the notion of a
glacial pace for the Fed to increase rates, investors said.
"The market believes that the doves are in control of the
Fed, and Yellen is a dove," said Don Ellenberger, head of
multi-sector strategies at Federated Investors in Pittsburgh.
On the supply front, the U.S. Treasury Department sold $14
billion of five-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities to
average demand, analysts said. The latest five-year TIPS supply
fetched a negative yield for a second straight auction.
August 18 Thursday 3:39PM New York / 1939 GMT
Price
US T BONDS SEP6 172-1/32 0-14/32
10YR TNotes SEP6 132-108/256 0-80/256
Price Current Net
Yield % Change
(bps)
Three-month bills 0.2975 0.3019 0.000
Six-month bills 0.43 0.4369 -0.023
Two-year note 100-22/256 0.7055 -0.032
Three-year note 99-200/256 0.8242 -0.040
Five-year note 100-20/256 1.1087 -0.039
Seven-year note 99-52/256 1.3706 -0.038
10-year note 99-180/256 1.5322 -0.029
30-year bond 99-216/256 2.2572 -0.016
DOLLAR SWAP SPREADS
Last (bps) Net (LSE: 0LN0.L - news)
Change
(bps)
U.S. 2-year dollar swap 25.75 1.25
spread
U.S. 3-year dollar swap 19.50 1.50
spread
U.S. 5-year dollar swap 2.50 0.75
spread
U.S. 10-year dollar swap -12.50 0.50
spread
U.S. 30-year dollar swap -51.50 0.25
spread
(Reporting by Richard Leong; Editing by Steve Orlofsky and Dan
Grebler)