TREASURIES-Yields drop as risk appetite fades on emerging market worries
* Stronger-than-expected U.S. data briefly boosts yields
* Turkish lira rises, but other EM currencies fall
* U.S. yield curve flattens
(Adds comment; updates prices)
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, Aug 15 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields fell on
Wednesday after two straight days of gains as risk appetite
soured amid nagging concerns about fallout from the Turkish
crisis hitting other emerging markets.
The yield curve also flattened, with the spread between U.S.
2-year and 10-year notes narrowing to 23.2 basis points
, the tightest gap since at least March 2010,
according to Reuters data. A flatter yield curve reflects market
uncertainty.
Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic numbers briefly lifted
yields, but they soon hit new session lows as buying of
Treasuries resumed.
"Right now, the overall sentiment, especially toward
emerging markets, is fragile, and then you have the strong
dollar, which is adding to uncertainty," said Keith Lerner,
chief market strategist at Suntrust Advisory Services in
Atlanta (BSE: ATLANTA.BO - news) .
While the Turkish lira moved further away from
record lows, other emerging market currencies, such as the South
African rand and the Mexican peso, faltered.
The lira continued to rally on liquidity measures announced
by the Turkish central bank on Tuesday.
A leading emerging market stock index entered into what is
commonly regarded as bear territory on Wednesday, down 20
percent since January, as a fresh wave of selling extended a
slump.
In afternoon trading, U.S. 10-year yields fell to 2.849
percent, down from Tuesday's 2.895 percent. U.S.
30-year yields slid to 3.022 percent, from 3.062
percent late on Tuesday.
On the front end of the curve, U.S. 2-year yields eased to
2.604 percent from 2.633 percent on Tuesday.
Earlier, yields pared losses after a batch of
stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data reinforced
expectations of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve
next month. The data was led by U.S. retail sales, which rose
0.5 percent in July, beating expectations.
Other reports showed U.S. productivity in the second quarter
was the strongest in three years, while the New York Fed's
business index also overshot the consensus forecast.
"With (Other OTC: WWTH - news) retail sales still robust and inflationary pressures
building, the Fed isn't going to be distracted by volatility in
emerging markets and will continue to increase interest rates,"
said Andrew Hunter, U.S. economist at Capital Economics in
London.
That said Fed funds futures are rallying in tandem with
Treasuries, on safe-haven flows, analysts said. While a
September rate hike has been fully priced in, the chances of a
fourth hike this year diminished to around 63 percent on
Wednesday, from around 67 percent a week ago, according to CME's
FedWatch.
August 15 Wednesday 2:42PM New York / 1842 GMT
Price
US T BONDS SEP8 144-25/32 0-24/32
10YR TNotes SEP8 120-116/256 0-88/256
Price Current Net
Yield % Change
(bps)
Three-month bills 2.03 2.0688 -0.013
Six-month bills 2.175 2.2297 -0.008
Two-year note 100-10/256 2.604 -0.029
Three-year note 100-58/256 2.6708 -0.035
Five-year note 100-34/256 2.721 -0.046
Seven-year note 100-128/256 2.7953 -0.045
10-year note 100-56/256 2.8497 -0.045
30-year bond 99-140/256 3.0231 -0.039
DOLLAR SWAP SPREADS
Last (bps) Net (LSE: 0LN0.L - news)
Change
(bps)
U.S. 2-year dollar swap 19.00 -0.75
spread
U.S. 3-year dollar swap 16.50 -1.00
spread
U.S. 5-year dollar swap 13.50 -0.25
spread
U.S. 10-year dollar swap 6.25 -0.50
spread
U.S. 30-year dollar swap -7.50 -0.50
spread
(Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Additional reporting by
April Joyner; Editing by Dan Grebler and Leslie Adler)