Trump 2.0 certain to be more hawkish on China, analysts warn, as shooting sparks sympathy

A second Trump administration was certain to be more hawkish towards China, Chinese analysts have warned.

They also said Saturday's attack on the presumptive Republican nominee could turn the tide in his favour in the short term, but the decisive impact on the US presidential election remained to be seen.

Former president Donald Trump was shot in the ear during a campaign rally in Pennsylvania, in an attack that is being investigated as an attempted assassination.

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Media reports were soon awash with photos and reports of a bloodied Trump defiantly pumping his fist as he was led away by security officers, in scenes expected to swell support among voters.

The preceding weeks had seen Trump stuck in a close race with his successor, Joe Biden, and widening leads in some national polls following a presidential debate earlier this month.

In a social media post hours after the attack, Trump called on the country to "stand united", ahead of the Republican National Convention starting Monday where he is expected to be named the party's presidential candidate for the election in November.

Zhang Jiadong, a researcher at Fudan University's Centre for American studies, said despite the many uncertainties in the run-up to November, what was certain was that both Trump and Biden would take a tough stand on China.

But Trump could make "countering China" his biggest foreign policy priority if re-elected, he warned.

During his 2017-2021 term in office, Trump had labelled China as a "strategic competitor" and launched a trade war against it. That legacy has been carried forward by Biden, who has expanded the rivalry to the tech front, but he has also sought to stabilise relations as part of his China policy.

On Saturday's attack, Zhang said it might see support for Trump grow "in the short term", but how long that would last depended on how the investigation unfolded.

"American voters will return to rationality in the long run," Zhang said.

"Before the shooting, the US media was mainly concerned about Biden, his age and health. This kind of attention was very beneficial to Trump ... [Now] I think the attention on Biden will decrease ... and the attention will turn to new issues such as gun safety."

Diao Daming, a Renmin University professor specialising in US studies, also said the attack was likely to win Trump some sympathy, but it was unclear whether swing voters could be persuaded.

"This unexpected incident will consolidate the support Trump has already received, and may enable him to drive support from other voters in the conservative camp, who are hesitant because of his personal affairs and his [criminal] conviction," he said.

"The two parties have been basically locked in an even match. So if any party has issues, whether it is favourable or unfavourable, it does not necessarily mean that the other party will have an advantage."

Both Trump and Biden are seen as having their own deficiencies. While Trump is stuck in election fraud and hush-money cases, concerns have also mounted among the American public over Biden's health, with high-profile members of the Democratic Party calling on him to step aside.

Biden called Trump and addressed the nation after Saturday's attack, condemning it as "political violence" that had "no place in America".

He has also ordered an independent inquiry into the shooting, which was carried out by a registered Republican voter and left one person dead and two others critically wounded.

According to Zhang: "The Democratic Party's China policy emphasises balance ... they would want to focus on stability and maintaining the status quo," and have more pressing matters to deal with like the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza.

"But the Republicans and Trump ... emphasise more on America's own interests and security ... [Trump] believes that no matter what the outcomes of the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, they are not a threat to the US and will not overturn its position [in the world].

"This is possible only with China, so they will naturally come to the conclusion that US foreign policy should focus on China."

A draft Republican platform released last week called for revoking China's "most favoured nation" trade status while making "countering China" the primary goal in building military strength.

Zhu Feng, a Nanjing University professor who specialises in US-China relations, said the attempted assassination of Trump was likely to widen his lead and prompt the Democrats to reconsider their nominee, as calls grow for Vice-President Kamala Harris to take Biden's place.

"I think this incident is a very severe test for the Democratic Party and the Biden administration," he said.

"If Trump's public support rate increases, and Biden continues to perform weakly ... it may really trigger a crisis within the Democratic Party if [Biden] does not quit the race."

If Trump were to win, US-China relations could become more intense if he brought the China hawks in his former administration back into his cabinet, Zhu said, as many of them have a record of being "ideological" and aggressive on China, such as former US secretary of state Mike Pompeo.

Pompeo has not ruled out joining a Trump 2.0 government.

And as Trump is reportedly gathering his former officials for a possible new cabinet, many have urged him to act tougher on Beijing, including his former security adviser Robert O'Brien who has called for strengthening support for Taiwan.

Trump is also set to announce his running mate during this week's Republican National Convention. The front runners include senators J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio, who are known for their hawkish stance on China.

This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2024 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

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