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Is Ubisoft Entertainment's (EPA:UBI) 299% Share Price Increase Well Justified?

While Ubisoft Entertainment SA (EPA:UBI) shareholders are probably generally happy, the stock hasn't had particularly good run recently, with the share price falling 23% in the last quarter. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last five years have been very strong. It's fair to say most would be happy with 299% the gain in that time. So while it's never fun to see a share price fall, it's important to look at a longer time horizon. Only time will tell if there is still too much optimism currently reflected in the share price.

View our latest analysis for Ubisoft Entertainment

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

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Over half a decade, Ubisoft Entertainment managed to grow its earnings per share at 18% a year. We do note that extraordinary items have impacted its earnings history. This EPS growth is slower than the share price growth of 32% per year, over the same period. This suggests that market participants hold the company in higher regard, these days. That's not necessarily surprising considering the five-year track record of earnings growth.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

ENXTPA:UBI Past and Future Earnings, November 27th 2019
ENXTPA:UBI Past and Future Earnings, November 27th 2019

This free interactive report on Ubisoft Entertainment's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 22% in the last year, Ubisoft Entertainment shareholders lost 17%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 32% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. You might want to assess this data-rich visualization of its earnings, revenue and cash flow.

But note: Ubisoft Entertainment may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on FR exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.