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The UK General Election – Post Debate Odds, Polls and Predictions

Bob Mason

After a positive start to the week for the Tories, it was Tuesday’s first leadership debate that garnered plenty of attention.

According to the YouGov snap poll, Boris Johnson won the night 51-49, though the financial markets and the Pound didn’t think so.

According to viewers who watched the debate, 59% thought Johnson performed well, while 41% thought he performed badly. For Corbyn, 67% thought he performed well, with just 32% thinking that he performed badly…

According to the snap poll, Boris Johnson came across better on the subject of Brexit (63% to 27%). On the subject of NHS, however, Corbyn came across better (54% to 38%).

From the overall debate, Johnson was viewed as more Prime Ministerial (54% to 29%) and likable (54% to 37%). Meanwhile, Corbyn was considered more in touch (59% to 25%) and trustworthy (45% to 40%).

While Johnson won the night, it was far closer than recent opinion polls continue to suggest. The outcome of the debate questioned the reliability of the polls in the run-up to the debate.

The UK Election Opinion Polls, Predictions and Odds

According to the latest YouGov poll tracker released today, the Tories saw their lead narrow from 17% to just 12%.

Based on the opinion poll tracker, the Tories share of the vote fell from a 15th November 45% to a 19th November 42%.

For the Opposition Party, the share of the vote increased from 28% to 30% over the same period.

The Lib Dems continued to lag the leading two parties, with their share of the vote holding steady at 15%. YouGov had the Tories, Labour, the Lib Dems, and the Brexit Party neck and neck back in May…

According to Electoral Calculus predictions, the Tories are predicted to win 361 seats, which would give a majority of 72. The predicted majority rose by 2 seats from the previous release.

Electoral Calculus predicted the opposition party to win 201 seats, unchanged from the previous release.

Updated predictions, in the coming days, that will take into account opinion polls taken in the wake of the 1st leadership debate will provide further direction.

Hung Parliament

The latest bookmakers’ odds also provided interesting news.

According to Oddschecker, the odds for the Tories to win with an overall majority stood at ‘1/2’. On Monday the odds had stood at 6/11 and at 4/7 last Friday

The odds of the Tories winning the most seats moved from 1/16 to 1/14.

For the opposition party, the odds of winning the most seats held steady at 12/1. The odds of an overall Labour majority also held steady at 33/1.

With the Lib Dems struggling to see an uptick in support, the latest opinion polls and Electoral Calculus figures suggest that the chances of a hung parliament remained slim.

At the time of writing, Oddschecker had the odds of a hung parliament sitting at 15/8. At the start of the week, the odds had stood at 9/4.

UK bookmakers had the odds of a hung parliament at 5/4 in the 1st week of November.

The Pound

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.26% to $1.28917.

The Pound fell by 0.21% on Tuesday in response to the debate.

The outcome of the 1st leadership debate on Tuesday continued to pressure the Pound through this morning.

For the Pound, the next set of opinion polls will provide further direction ahead of the next leadership debate scheduled on Friday, 22nd November. On Friday, Lib Dem party leader Jo Swinson and SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon will join the debate.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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