UK gilt yields touch new post-Brexit vote highs
(Adds quote, other records, updates prices)
By William Schomberg
LONDON, Oct (HKSE: 3366-OL.HK - news) 28 (Reuters) - Yields on British government
bonds touched their highest levels since the Brexit vote on
Friday as investors discounted the chance of a Bank of England
rate hike next week and pondered the risk of a lot more public
borrowing in the years ahead.
Ten-year gilt yields peaked at 1.312 percent at
1239 GMT, their highest since Britain's June 23 referendum
decision to leave the European Union, and more than 5 basis
points up on the day.
British gilt future prices fell while those for German Bunds
held steady, and the spread between 10-year gilt and
Bund yields widened by 3 basis points on the day to 111 basis
points. If it closes at this level, it would mark the highest
premium investors receive to hold British debt since the
referendum.
The 10-year yield has more than doubled since touching
record lows in August on growing signs that Britain's economy
was coping surprisingly well with the immediate Brexit shock and
expectations of higher U.S. interest rates.
Twenty- and 30-year yields also hit new post-referendum
highs as longer-dated debt underperformed shorter maturities.
With (Other OTC: WWTH - news) investors and most economists no longer expecting a
fresh rate cut by the BoE (Shenzhen: 200725.SZ - news) on Thursday, attention has turned to
the announcement on Nov. 23 by finance minister Philip Hammond
of Britain's first budget plans since the Brexit vote.
"People have got the Autumn Statement at the back of their
minds now," Alan Clarke, a strategist with Scotiabank, said.
He said Hammond might announce next month that public sector
borrowing could overshoot the government's existing targets by
as much as 150 billion pounds ($182 billion) over the next five
years, given the expected Brexit hit to Britain's economic
growth and the likelihood of higher public spending.
Furthermore, Britain's existing deficit-cutting forecasts
looked ambitious even before the referendum, raising the
prospect of an upward revision to borrowing by the independent
budget office when Hammond announces budget plans.
"People are assuming there will be a lot more issuance at
the longer end," Clarke (Toronto: CKI.TO - news) said.
The yields on 20-year and 30-year British government bonds
also hit their highest levels since the referendum on Friday,
touching 1.945 and 1.825 percent respectively, up as much as 8
basis points on the day as they underperformed shorter-dated
debt.
The Office for Budget Responsibility said in March it
expected a British budget deficit of 72.2 billion pounds in the
2015/16 financial year to turn into a surplus of 10 billion
pounds by 2019/20.
Dec (Shanghai: 600875.SS - news) long gilt future 124.88 (-0.27)
Dec 2016 short sterling 99.59 (-0.01)
June 2017 short sterling 99.55 (-0.01)
10-year gilt yield 1.27 pct (+2 bps)
-------------------KEY MARKET DATA---------------------------
Long Gilt futures Gilt benchmark chain
Short Stg futures Cash market quotes
Deposit rates Sterling cross rates
UK debt speedguide
-------------------KEY MARKET REPORTS--------------------------
Gilts Sterling
Euro Debt Dollar
U.S. Treasuries Debt reports
--------------------GILT STRIPS DATA -------------------------
Gilt strips data All gilt strips
Gilt strips IO Gilt strips PO
($1 = 0.8232 pounds)
(Writing by William Schomberg; Editing by Richard Balmforth)