Industry shines in otherwise hazy vista for UK economy
* Industrial, factory output top all forecasts in Sept
* Trade deficit narrows for first time in 5 months
* Figures likely to cheer BoE (Shenzhen: 000725.SZ - news) officials after rate hike
* But construction output sinks, retailers slump
(Adds next week's data, Budget)
By Andy Bruce and Alistair Smout
LONDON, Nov 10 (Reuters) - British industry had its
strongest month so far this year in September, but more signs of
strain on consumers and a plunge in construction were reminders
that the economy looks set for a difficult 2018 as Brexit
approaches.
The figures published on Friday suggested manufacturing may
help to counteract a consumer-led slowdown and offered some
vindication to the Bank of England which last week raised
interest rates for the first time in more than 10 years.
"Stronger global growth and the effect of the weaker pound
seems to be finally showing through in the UK manufacturing
numbers," said ING economist James Smith.
The Office for National Statistics also announced a 1.6
percent monthly drop in construction, while separate figures
published on Friday showed British shops suffered their worst
October for sales in a decade.
"Given that manufacturing represents a relatively small
share of the UK economy, the persistent weakness in consumer
spending is a bigger consideration for the Bank of England,"
Smith said.
Most economists polled by Reuters think Britain's economy
will slow next year, in large part due to uncertainty created by
a lack of progress in talks on the terms of Britain's divorce
from the European Union.
But next week's data on wage growth, inflation and retail
sales will offer a more complete picture of an uneven economy
around which finance minister Philip Hammond must engineer an
annual budget, due on Nov. 22.
NO CHANGE TO GDP VIEW
The ONS said Friday's data backed up its preliminary
estimate of growth of 0.4 percent in the third quarter, picking
up a bit from earlier in 2017 but still slower than the rate in
the euro zone.
Industrial and manufacturing output shot up by a monthly 0.7
percent in September, the fastest growth for each sector since
December last year and above all forecasts in a Reuters poll of
economists, which pointed to a reading of 0.3 percent for both.
Industrial output, which includes manufacturing, accounts
for 14 percent of Britain's economic output.
Figures for the much bigger services sector are due on Nov.
23.
For the third quarter as a whole, there was little change to
estimates for industrial, manufacturing and construction output
that appeared in the ONS' preliminary economic growth estimate.
Until now, the official readings of manufacturing have
tended to show a weaker picture for the sector than upbeat
surveys over 2017.
Separately, the ONS said Britain's goods trade deficit
narrowed by much more than expected to 11.253 billion pounds in
September from 12.350 billion, helped by a rise in exports.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected 12.8 billion.
That was not enough to prevent a deterioration in Britain's
trade performance in the third quarter, however, which looks
likely to be a sizeable drag on economic growth.
Samuel Tombs, an economist with Pantheon Macroeconomics,
said the narrowing of the deficit in September almost entirely
reflected an improvement in trade in erratic items.
Until now, there has been little sign of any big boost to
British exports from the sharp fall in the value of the pound
that followed last year's Brexit vote.
(Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise)