UK inflation falls to 2-year low, offering households help before Brexit
* UK inflation hits 2-year low of 1.8 pct in Dec (Shanghai: 600875.SS - news)
* Inflation now below Bank of England's target
* Factory input costs rise at slowest pace since June 2016
* But consumer energy bills set to rise soon
(Adds comment from economists)
By Andy Bruce and William Schomberg
LONDON, Feb 13 (Reuters) - British inflation fell to a
two-year low in January, dipping below the Bank of England's
target and offering some relief to consumers who have tightened
their belts ahead of Brexit.
Consumer prices rose at an annual rate of 1.8 percent, down
from December's 2.1 percent, as a new government cap on
household power bills kicked in.
A Reuters poll of economists had forecast 1.9 percent.
British consumers have been pressured by inflation caused by
the slump in sterling against the dollar and euro after the
Brexit referendum in June 2016.
Inflation peaked at a five-year high of 3.1 percent in
November 2017, when households faced much greater price
increases than the European Union average.
That difference is now negligible, helping the Bank of
England as it holds off on fresh interest rate hikes pending the
outcome of Britain's Brexit stand-off with the rest of the EU.
"The further falling back in inflation facilitates the Bank
of England maintaining a 'wait and see' approach on interest
rates until after the UK leaves the EU," Howard Archer, chief
economic adviser to the EY ITEM Club consultancy, said.
British government bond prices rose after the data, pushing
10-year yields down by 2 basis points.
But Allan Monks, an economist with JP Morgan, said the
impact of the power price cap would be short-lived because
tariffs were likely to rise by around 10 percent in April.
"Unlike when the cap is lowered, energy firms don't have to
automatically raise prices when the cap is lifted. But we expect
they will," Monks said.
On Wednesday, npower became the third of Britain's six major
energy providers this week to say it would raise prices from
April.
Last week the BoE (Shenzhen: 000725.SZ - news) said inflation was likely to fall below
2.0 percent in coming months before picking up again.
Despite the fall in inflation since late 2017 and the
fastest wage growth in a decade, businesses have reported a
downturn in consumer spending in recent months.
Surveys show households are worried, with Britain on course
for a no-deal departure from the EU on March 29 unless Prime
Minister Theresa May can broker a revised deal with the EU that
would be accepted by her divided party and parliament.
Wednesday's figures from the Office for National Statistics
suggested less short-term inflation pressure in the pipeline.
Manufacturers' raw materials costs were 2.9 percent higher
than in January 2018, the slowest increase since June 2016, the
month of the Brexit referendum. Economists polled by Reuters had
expected input prices to rise by 3.8 percent.
(Reporting by Andy Bruce William Schomberg; Editing by John
Stonestreet and Hugh Lawson)