UK inflation jump puts Bank of England back in spotlight on rates
* CPI +2.9 pct yy, vs Reuters poll consensus +2.8 pct
* Joint highest CPI rate since April 2012
* Bank of England to decide on rates on Thursday
* Clothing prices rise on Brexit effect, fuel up too
* Sterling hits four-week high vs euro
(Adds pound hitting one-year high against dollar, comments)
By William Schomberg and Alistair Smout
LONDON, Sept 12 (Reuters) - British inflation hit its joint
highest level in more than five years in August, complicating
the Bank of England's job this week of explaining why it is not
raising interest rates.
The fall in the value of the pound since last year's vote to
leave the European Union helped drive the biggest rise in
clothing prices since the consumer price index was launched in
1997 and rising global oil costs also had an impact.
Consumer prices overall increased by 2.9 percent compared
with a year earlier, the Office for National Statistics said, up
from 2.6 percent in July and above the median forecast in a
Reuters poll of economists for a rise of 2.8 percent.
That took the CPI back to its level in May. The last time it
was higher than 2.9 percent was in April 2012.
Sterling hit a one-year high against the dollar after the
data and it rose strongly against the euro too as investors
priced in a greater chance of the BoE (Shenzhen: 000725.SZ - news) raising rates for the
first time in a decade. British government bond prices fell.
Sam Hill, an economist with RBC Capital Markets, said the
BoE had been expecting inflation of 2.7 percent in August and
while no change in rates was likely this week, the inflation
reading was a challenge for the central bank.
Most members of its Monetary Policy Committee are worried
that uncertainty about Brexit will hurt the economy, which
slowed sharply in the first half of 2017, and they have so far
held off on voting for raising rates.
Furthermore, households have lost spending power as their
wages are left behind by inflation. Figures due on Wednesday are
expected to show pay grew by an annual 2.3 percent in the three
months to July, picking up a touch but lagging inflation.
"I think it will be a real headache for the MPC," Hill said.
"Inflationary pressure is there but there is also evidence that
consumers are having a tough time."
PIPELINE PRESSURE
The BoE targets 2 percent inflation. It expects inflation to
hit about 3 percent in October, but much of it was due to the
fall in the value of the pound since the Brexit vote which the
BoE expects to gradually fade out of the inflation figures.
However, a further recent fall in the pound against the euro
is likely to keep pressure on British inflation for longer than
the BoE forecast in August.
The BoE is expected to keep the possibility of a rate hike
on the radar for investors in its statement this week. Some
economists said three of the MPC's nine members might vote for a
rate hike, up from two last month, with chief economist Andy
Haldane joining the dissenters.
But Paul Hollingsworth, an economist with Capital Economics,
said he expected inflation to peak at 3.1 percent in October and
the subsequent easing of price pressures would probably leave a
clear majority of rate-setters voting for no change.
"With (Other OTC: WWTH - news) mixed signals on the current strength of the economy
and the majority of the Committee appearing to be comfortable
with a temporary, exchange-rate driven pick-up in headline
inflation, we don’t think that the MPC will be panicked into
raising interest rates imminently," he said.
Most economists polled by Reuters in late August said they
did not expect a rate hike until 2019.
Tuesday's data hinted at some future price pressure as the
costs of raw materials and of goods leaving factories increased
slightly. Factory gate prices rose by an annual 3.4 percent, the
first increase in the rate since February.
(Additional reporting by David Milliken; Writing by William
Schomberg; Editing by Janet Lawrence)