UK jobs market defies economy's Brexit slowdown
* Wage growth holds at strongest pace since 2008
* Job creation strong; unemployment lowest since 1975
* Honda, Nissan moves raise Brexit-linked concerns
* Productivity falls in late 2018
* EU workers in UK fall, non-EU workers rise
(Adds details, comment from economists)
By William Schomberg and David Milliken
LONDON, Feb 19 (Reuters) - British workers' pay growth
maintained its fastest pace in a decade in late 2018 and job
creation stayed strong, data showed, suggesting the labour
market was buoyant ahead of Brexit as the broader economy
slowed.
Total (LSE: 524773.L - news) earnings, including bonuses, rose by an annual 3.4
percent in the three months to December, matching their fastest
pace of growth since mid-2008.
The increase was a touch below a forecast for a pick-up to
3.5 percent in a Reuters poll of economists.
Average weekly earnings excluding bonuses also rose by 3.4
percent on the year, the Office for National Statistics said on
Tuesday, in line with the poll forecast.
Britain's strong labour market has defied a slowdown in the
economy since the 2016 referendum vote to leave the European
Union.
Tuesday's figures showed the number of people in work rose
by 167,000 in the three months to December, the biggest increase
since the first quarter of 2018 and stronger than the poll's
forecast of 140,000.
With Britain due to leave the EU in just over a month's
time, and no clarity yet on whether it will get a deal to smooth
the shock, many companies have cut investment in equipment,
potentially making them more likely to hire workers.
BREXIT EFFECT AHEAD?
However, Honda's announcement that it will close a plant
with the loss of 3,500 jobs and Nissan's decision not to build a
new model of car in Britain have raised concerns about the
outlook for big manufacturers against the backdrop of Brexit and
a slowing world economy.
Signs of nervousness among businesses might be yet to appear
in the jobs figures, Andrew Wishart, an economist with
consultancy Capital Economics, said.
"The (business) surveys deteriorated more markedly in
January, so a Brexit effect might start to weaken employment
growth in the next batch of official data."
With (Other OTC: WWTH - news) unemployment at its lowest rate since 1975 - 4.0
percent in the three months to December - employers have begun
raising pay for staff more quickly.
The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development, a
human resources professional body, said on Monday that
private-sector employers planned to increase basic pay rates
this year by the most since the survey started in 2012.
The Bank of England has said it will need to raise interest
rates gradually to offset inflation pressures from rising pay.
This month, it forecast wage growth would slow to 3.0
percent by the end of 2019 before picking up again.
When adjusted for inflation, total earnings in the last
three months of 2018 rose by 1.3 percent, the fastest increase
since late 2016, the ONS said.
However, the pace of nominal wage rises remains slower than
the 4 percent increases of before the financial crisis.
PRODUCTIVITY PROBLEM
Tuesday's ONS data showed a downside of the continued strong
job creation in the form of a latest fall in productivity, the
Achilles' heel of Britain's economy.
Output per hour fell 0.2 percent in annual terms in the last
three months of December. The last time it declined by more was
in late 2015, the ONS said.
Weak productivity puts long-term pay growth in jeopardy and
risks pushing up inflation.
The ONS data showed a fall in the number of EU workers in
the United Kingdom, largely driven by a decline in eastern
European workers. But the number of non-EU workers rose,
resulting in a total annual increase of 83,000 foreign workers
in the country in the last three months of the year.
(Writing by William Schomberg; editing by John Stonestreet)