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UK retail footfall nears pre-pandemic levels but inflation pressure looms

UK retail footfall in March marked a 15.3% drop versus same time in 2019. Photo: Mike Kemp/In Pictures via Getty Images
UK retail footfall in March marked a 15.3% drop versus same time in 2019. Photo: Mike Kemp/In Pictures via Getty Images (Mike Kemp via Getty Images)

UK retail footfall moved closer to 2019 levels last month and nearer to levels recorded prior to the increase in Omicron cases as inflation is set to knock customers confidence.

New figures from Springboard show footfall over the period from 27 February to 2 April rose 5.4% compared with the month before.

Footfall in March marked a 15.3% drop versus same time in 2019, nearer to the November figure of 14.5%.

In shopping centres and retail parks, footfall dropped 21.3% and 4.2% respectively, compared with the same time period in 2019.

Read more: UK house prices post biggest jump in six months

The volume of overall weekly high street footfall in the week to 2 April decreased by 14.7% from the week before and was 81% of the level seen in the same time period in 2019.

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"While the latest figures demonstrate retail resilience, we must stay vigilant, said Dave Bruno, director of retail market insights at Aptos, a global retail tech firm. "Despite somewhat solid fundamentals, consumers have so many things to contend with right now — war, inflation, fuel prices, to name just a few."

"These complicated challenges can put a strain on consumer confidence and, I suspect, future retail numbers, as price-conscious customers feel the pinch."

The South West had the highest weekly levels of retail footfall in the week to 2 April, compared with the equivalent week of 2019, at 90%. Image: ONS/Springboard
The South West had the highest weekly levels of retail footfall in the week to 2 April, compared with the equivalent week of 2019, at 90%. Image: ONS/Springboard

Despite the increase, the uplift in footfall is not expected to continue due to a reduction in consumer disposable income as a result of the impeding cost of living crisis.

Springboard market and insights director Diane Wehrle said: "With the substantial increase in energy and fuel prices, consumers are aware that increased costs are on the horizon but have not fully hit and so are already being relatively cautious, and the concomitant rise in inflation that is forecast over the forthcoming months will put household budgets under increasing pressure.

"Inevitably this will mean less disposable income and so some retail spending will be curtailed, particularly as we enter the summer period when many consumers will be looking to reserve budget to spend on much-longed-for summer holidays."

Read more: Shell to write off up to $5bn on Russia exit

Separate analysis from the Office for National Statistics published on Thursday showed UK credit and debit card spending rose by 6 percentage points in the week to 31 March to 4% above its pre-COVID level.

UK consumers are looking to spend less and tighten their purse strings as a combination of the soaring inflation, higher fuel prices, energy bills and the impact of the Ukraine war threaten the cost of living.

A recent PwC’s report suggested the mood among consumers about their finances suffered its biggest fall in March since the financial crisis of 2008 amid the tightest cost of living squeeze in a generation.

UK inflation hit a 30-year high of 6.2% in February and is predicted to rise over 8% this month.

Watch: How does inflation affect interest rates?