Ukraine central bank sees average national electricity deficit of 5% in 2024-25

KYIV (Reuters) -Ukraine's central bank on Friday forecast an average national electricity deficit of about 5% this year and next following the latest Russian attacks on Ukraine's power sector.

Over recent weeks, Russia has ramped up missile and drone strikes, damaging most of Ukraine's thermal power plants along with other power infrastructure.

The Ukrainian power system had already been weakened during the first winter of Russia's full-scale invasion, which began in February 2022.

After the latest wave of bombardments, Ukraine lost about 80% of its thermal power generation and around 35% of its hydroelectric capacity, officials have said.

Scheduled electricity cut-offs have been introduced in several regions, and Ukraine had to rely on imports from its Western neighbours to meet demand during peak consumption hours.

State energy trader 'Ukraine's Energy Company' said the country imported 225,000 megawatts of electricity in April, the highest volume so far this year.

However, the full impact has not been felt nationwide yet as consumption is relatively low because of mild spring weather.

The central bank expected a more significant electricity deficit from the second quarter of 2024 due to lower water levels for hydropower stations and scheduled repairs at nuclear power stations.

"Going forward the electricity deficit will grow with the increase in consumption in summer and during the heating season," it said in a statement.

Even accounting for imports and partial restoration of generating capacity, the central bank expected a deficit of between 5% to 7% for the rest of the year. In peak consumption hours the deficit might reach 25-30%.

The deficit will remain in 2025 with a nationwide average of 7% in the first quarter before decreasing to about 3% later in the year.

(Reporting by Olena Harmash; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)