- By GF Value
The stock of Urban One (NAS:UONE, 30-year Financials) is estimated to be significantly overvalued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $18.57 per share and the market cap of $446.7 million, Urban One stock gives every indication of being significantly overvalued. GF Value for Urban One is shown in the chart below.
Because Urban One is significantly overvalued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be much lower than its future business growth.
Since investing in companies with low financial strength could result in permanent capital loss, investors must carefully review a company's financial strength before deciding whether to buy shares. Looking at the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage can give a good initial perspective on the company's financial strength. Urban One has a cash-to-debt ratio of 0.07, which ranks in the bottom 10% of the companies in the industry of Media - Diversified. Based on this, GuruFocus ranks Urban One's financial strength as 3 out of 10, suggesting poor balance sheet. This is the debt and cash of Urban One over the past years:
Companies that have been consistently profitable over the long term offer less risk for investors who may want to purchase shares. Higher profit margins usually dictate a better investment compared to a company with lower profit margins. Urban One has been profitable 4 over the past 10 years. Over the past twelve months, the company had a revenue of $372.9 million and earnings of $0.29 a share. Its operating margin is 30.41%, which ranks better than 94% of the companies in the industry of Media - Diversified. Overall, the profitability of Urban One is ranked 6 out of 10, which indicates fair profitability. This is the revenue and net income of Urban One over the past years:
One of the most important factors in the valuation of a company is growth. Long-term stock performance is closely correlated with growth according to GuruFocus research. Companies that grow faster create more value for shareholders, especially if that growth is profitable. The average annual revenue growth of Urban One is -2%, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in the industry of Media - Diversified. The 3-year average EBITDA growth is -12.5%, which ranks worse than 68% of the companies in the industry of Media - Diversified.
Another way to look at the profitability of a company is to compare its return on invested capital and the weighted cost of capital. Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. We want to have the return on invested capital higher than the weighted cost of capital. For the past 12 months, Urban One's return on invested capital is 40.75, and its cost of capital is 2.90. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of Urban One is shown below:
In conclusion, Urban One (NAS:UONE, 30-year Financials) stock shows every sign of being significantly overvalued. The company's financial condition is poor and its profitability is fair. Its growth ranks worse than 68% of the companies in the industry of Media - Diversified. To learn more about Urban One stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.
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This article first appeared on GuruFocus.