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Volatility 101: Should Vossloh (ETR:VOS) Shares Have Dropped 31%?

While not a mind-blowing move, it is good to see that the Vossloh AG (ETR:VOS) share price has gained 11% in the last three months. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last three years have been less than pleasing. Truth be told the share price declined 31% in three years and that return, Dear Reader, falls short of what you could have got from passive investing with an index fund.

See our latest analysis for Vossloh

Vossloh wasn't profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually expect strong revenue growth. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one does expect good top-line growth.

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Over the last three years, Vossloh's revenue dropped 0.4% per year. That is not a good result. The stock has disappointed holders over the last three years, falling 12%, annualized. That makes sense given the lack of either profits or revenue growth. Of course, sentiment could become too negative, and the company may actually be making progress to profitability.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

XTRA:VOS Income Statement, January 31st 2020
XTRA:VOS Income Statement, January 31st 2020

Take a more thorough look at Vossloh's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Vossloh the TSR over the last 3 years was -28%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

Vossloh shareholders gained a total return of 1.4% during the year. But that was short of the market average. But at least that's still a gain! Over five years the TSR has been a reduction of 5.4% per year, over five years. So this might be a sign the business has turned its fortunes around. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Vossloh better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Vossloh that you should be aware of before investing here.

We will like Vossloh better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on DE exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.