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Weekly Outlook: February 12 - 16

Dollar posts strong weekly gains amid turbulent week in stock and bond markets

Investing.com - The dollar was little changed against a basket of the other major currencies on Friday but recorded its strongest week in almost 15 months after a turbulent week in stock and bond markets around the world.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was steady at 90.22 in late trade.

For the week, the index was up 1.45%, having recovered from a three-year low set two weeks ago.

The dollar was supported by increased safe haven demand from investors amid dramatic moves in the equities and bond markets.

The dollar found received support after Congress and U.S. President Donald Trump approved a federal budget plan that ended an overnight federal shutdown.

U.S. stocks ended higher on Friday, but still suffered their steepest weekly losses in more than two years. Heavy selling pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 into correction territory on Thursday.

Market turbulence has been triggered by speculation that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates at a faster rate than had been expected amid signs of a pickup in inflation.

The dollar stabilized against the safe haven yen following Thursday’s declines, with USD/JPY last at 108.78.

The dollar also pushed higher against the traditional safe haven Swiss franc, with USD/CHF climbing 0.33% to 0.9392.

The euro was steady against the dollar, with EUR/USD at 1.2250 in late trade. The single currency ended the week down 1.82%, the largest weekly percentage decline since November 2016.

Meanwhile, sterling weakened against the dollar and the euro on Friday after Michel Barnier, the European Union’s Brexit negotiator warned Britain that a post-Brexit transition deal was “not a given”.

GBP/USD was down 0.63% to 1.3832, while EUR/GBP advanced 0.68% to 0.8862.

The pound had bounced higher on Thursday after the Bank of England warned that interest rates may need to rise sooner than had been expected.

In the week ahead, inflation readings from the U.S., UK and Germany will be in the spotlight

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, February 12

Financial markets in Japan will be closed for a holiday.

Tuesday, February 13

Australia is to publish data on business confidence.

The UK is to release data on inflation.

Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester is due to speak at an event in Dayton.

Wednesday, February 14

Japan is to release preliminary data on fourth quarter growth.

New Zealand is to release a report on inflation expectations.

The euro zone is to publish a revised estimate of fourth quarter economic growth as well as a revised estimate on inflation for January.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to report on consumer price inflation and retail sales.

Thursday, February 15

Financial markets in China will be closed for a holiday.

Australia is to publish its latest employment report.

The U.S. is to release data on producer prices, industrial production, jobless claims and manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia and New York regions.

Friday, February 16

Financial markets in China will remain closed for a holiday.

The UK is to release data on retail sales.

Canada is to report on foreign securities purchases and manufacturing sales.

The U.S. is to round up the week with data on building permits, housing starts, import prices and a preliminary look at consumer sentiment.

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