This Week's Brexit Briefing -- At A Glance

Fund Warning

The International Monetary Fund said that a British exit could severely hurt the global economy and pose major challenges for both the U.K. and the rest of Europe. In its twice-yearly World Economic Outlook it said:

“Negotiations on post-exit arrangements would likely be protracted, resulting in an extended period of heightened uncertainty that could weigh heavily on confidence and investment, all the while increasing financial market volatility.”

You’ll find the precise reference on page 26 here.

Much of the criticism of the report emphasized what was depicted as the fund’s poor record on economic forecasting from the 1990s Asian crisis to the Greek debt debacle. “Who’d have thought it? An elitist, supra-national body led by a lifelong Europhile supports the EU,” wrote the UK Independence Party’s only member of parliament, Douglas Carswell, referring to IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde.

An Englishman in New York

David Miliband described leaving the EU as “an act of political arson.”

“Not only would it have a devastating impact on Britain’s strength in the world; it also threatens a domino effect on the institutions that help make the world a more secure, prosperous and stable place. No nation in human peacetime history has voluntarily given up as much political power as we are being invited to throw away on June 23.”

Many of the responses played the man rather than the ball. The Express headline suggested should be counted out of the debate because he “lives in NEW YORK.” Others said the Labour Party politician who lost out to his brother in the Labour leadership race in 2010 should be discounted as yesterday’s man.

You and Your Family

It was the week in which the government sent out a booklet outlining its reasons for wanting to stay in the EU. Here is the online version, with footnotes giving the source of the assertions.

Leave campaigners criticized the spending of £9 million on what they described as a piece of propaganda. Some pointed out that the official campaign to leave didn’t have that much money to spend, so it was unfair. Others urged people to mail the booklet back to Mr. Cameron at 10 Downing Street.

Some were upset about bad grammar: “The Government believes it is in you and your family’s best interests that the UK remains in the European Union.”

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A Strong Socialist Case

In his first major speech on the issue, Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn said there was “a strong socialist case for staying in the EU,” but laid out a list of things he wanted changed, including making the bloc more accountable. Some colleagues say he’s changed his view on the matter.

What Next?

A new report by Open Europe, a London-based think tank that says it won’t declare a view on how to vote, lays out a vision of its recommendations in the event of Brexit “in order to offset the costs and maximize the economic benefits.” One key conclusion, given the importance of immigration in the referendum debate: “There are several reasons why we believe headline net immigration is unlikely to reduce much.” The reasons: business pressure, the need for fiscal sustainability in the face of an aging population, the effect of globalization on migration flows, and the effect of a likely agreement with the EU after the vote.

In our Brussels Beat column this week, we raise the question of whether such a free-market vision post-exit is politically achievable. There are reasons to doubt.

Further Reading

Commentary: Simon Nixon on President Barack Obama’s delicate mission when he visits the U.K. later this month “to try to persuade Britons not to back a move that risks a wider European fragmentation that would in turn profoundly weakening the Western alliance.”

Gideon Rachman on the “the day after Brexit“.

What Are the Polls Saying?

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