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White Christmas: Which UK regions are most likely to get snow in December?

A street in Chiswick, London, as heavy snowfall hit the UK in 2009  (Fiona Hanson/Alamy)
A street in Chiswick, London, as heavy snowfall hit the UK in 2009 (Fiona Hanson/Alamy)

A White Christmas has been all but ruled out for London, according to the Met Office, but other parts of the UK may have hope just yet.

The Scottish Highlands are obviously the top contenders for this wintry comeback, but some towns and cities in England may also see some snowfall earlier than usual.

So where might Brits be able to travel for their miracle of snow in December?

Where will there be snow in the UK over Christmas?

There are about 363 UK districts that have a high probability of snow this Christmas, according to a data analysis from Lottery Critic.

The analyst site looked at the regions that would have more than 0.1cm of snow this year, based on the each area’s mean snow depth in the last 10 days of December from 2001 to 2020.

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It took daily climate observation data from 2001 to 2020, providing a range of weather data supplied by the Met Office.

Of the results, Scotland was at the top of the list with a 96 per cent chance of snow. However, the top Scottish region Moray was outranked in terms of snow depth by the nearby Midlothian district, where snow would reach around 0.2cm of depth.

Moray has an average December temperature of 3.44C, nearly half of the 10th place, Stockport, which reaches an average of 6.44C.

The Scottish Highlands placed second overall, with a 91 per cent chance of snowfall at around 3.14C.

This is about 10 per cent more likely than the Scottish Border, which ranked sixth place.

Third place is Perth and Kinross with a sturdy 90 per cent likelihood of snow.

And England finally comes in with Pendle at fourth place, making it the best place to search for a white Christmas in England this year.

Tonbridge and Malling is the district least likely to have a white Christmas this year, with just a 0.33% chance of snowfall due to its high average December temperatures, with the mean at 6.3C.

See the full results below:

Ranking

Location

Mean snow depth from 2011 to 2020 (cm)

Chance of snow

1

Moray, Scotland

0.1889

95.9%

2

Highlands, Scotland

0.1835

91.2%

3

Perth and Kinros, Scotland

0.1803

90.5%

4

Pendle District, England

0.0754

86.3%

5

Dundee City, Scotland

0.5091

83.5%

6

Aberdeenshire, Scotland

0.1996

82.1%

7

Scottish Borders, Scotland

0.4747

81.1%

8

Craven District, England

0.1163

80.7%

9

Midlothian, Scotland

0.2075

79.9%

10

Stockport District

0.0063

79.5%