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Why Did Fossil Group, Inc. Stock Jump Friday?

What happened

Shares of watch company Fossil (NASDAQ: FOSL) increased as much as 13.6% on Friday. The stock is up 13.2% at the time of this writing. The stock's rise comes after shares fell on Wednesday in the aftermath of the company's third-quarter earnings release.

While it's not clear why Fossil stock is rising on Friday, there are several plausible theories. First, some investors may view the sell-off as a buying opportunity, helping the stock rebound. Second, and this could represent a large number of investors who were shorting the stock now covering their position, creating a short squeeze.

A chalkboard sketch showing a downward trending graph.
A chalkboard sketch showing a downward trending graph.

Image source: Getty Images.

So what

As of the end of October, Fossil Group short interest was nearly double where it was toward the end of last year. After a 75% decline in its stock price year to date, investors shorting the stock are likely pleased with their gains and ready to cover their positions.

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Regarding Fossil's third quarter, investors were likely unimpressed with management's guidance for the important holiday quarter. Fossil guided for net sales to decline between 11.5% and 3.5% year over year.

Now what

Fossil's difficult market environment is likely to persist. It would be naive to overlook the enormous success Apple is seeing with its Apple Watch -- just ahead of the holiday season -- and fail to consider how this can impact Fossil. Apple Watch sales have seen unit growth of over 50% year over year for three consecutive quarters, and a new version of the Apple Watch was launched just before the holidays. As the world's top-selling smartwatch, it will almost certainly have a negative impact on Fossil's watch business, which accounts for 80% of the company's total revenue.

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Daniel Sparks owns shares of Apple. The Motley Fool owns shares of and recommends Apple. The Motley Fool has the following options: long January 2020 $150 calls on Apple and short January 2020 $155 calls on Apple. The Motley Fool recommends Fossil Group, Inc. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.