Why EU's next foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas could be tougher on China

In a single week in August 2022, the top Estonian diplomat in Beijing was summoned to the Chinese foreign ministry not once, but three times.

With the ambassador out of town, the unfortunate charge d'affaires was hauled in twice to discourage the tiny Baltic state from exiting China's 16+1 grouping with Central and Eastern European countries.

On the last occasion, they got a rap on the knuckles after the decision was announced in a move carefully choreographed with neighbouring Latvia.

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Around the same time, Tallinn quietly exited Xi Jinping's Belt and Road Initiative. Apart from a minor diplomatic scolding, it escaped unscathed, after making little fanfare over the sort of move that has seen other EU members such as Italy fall foul of Beijing's state press.

Kaja Kallas presided over both decisions as Estonia's prime minister, though neither was her brainchild, having been proposed by the foreign ministry.

Pending confirmation after what could be tricky hearings in the European Parliament next month, Kallas will become the European Union's next foreign affairs chief, replacing Josep Borrell.

Most expect Kallas to pursue an aggressively anti-Russian platform as the high representative for foreign affairs and security policy/vice-president of the European Commission (HRVP), the title granted to the EU's top diplomat.

The three Baltic countries - Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania - see themselves at existential risk of Russian aggression. Kallas and her counterparts have unsurprisingly become among the staunchest backers of Ukraine and sternest critics of Russia.

On China, the outlook is less clear. While Kallas has frequently pitched herself in the "democrats versus autocrats" camp, she has taken a cautious approach in unpicking some of Estonia's ties with the world's second-largest economy.

Her record in office suggests that she was not inherently hawkish towards Beijing, even if she was happy to be guided by others who were.

Compared to Lithuania, which publicly courted Taiwan and loudly broadcast its decisions to exit Beijing's flagship trade and economic groupings, Kallas' Estonia preferred to do things quietly.

Kallas is seen to be "reasonably moderate" on China, but has not devoted a great deal of strategic thought to the country, according to people familiar with her governance.

During her 3½-year stint as Estonian prime minister, Asia was rarely a priority. She made just a single trip to the continent, travelling to Singapore last year for the Shangri-La Dialogue, an annual security forum. Her speech at the forum contained not a single mention of China.

Late last year it was reported that Taipei would set up a representative office in Tallinn. This earned a pre-emptive rebuke from Beijing, and a threat that the mainland Chinese envoy in Estonia would be withdrawn if the move went ahead.

However, Taiwan has yet to submit a formal application, having been told that it would be impossible to open an office with the same name as its branch in Vilnius, according to three people familiar with the issue.

In Estonia, Lithuania was not seen to have operated astutely on the issue, even if some of Tallinn's ministries viewed Beijing with similar levels of suspicion.

Estonia abstained during a recent vote on whether to back the European Commission's provisional duties on Chinese-made electric vehicles, and has in general favoured free-market policies over geopolitical manoeuvrings.

The exception is on issues pertaining to Russia. Because of this, a consensus is emerging in Brussels that Kallas will be tougher on China, largely due to Beijing's ties with Moscow.

"Kallas will support [European Commission President Ursula] von der Leyen in standing up to China, notably in the context of the war in Ukraine," said analysts from the Merics think tank in a recent note.

"Beijing believes her tough stance on Russia will make solutions even more difficult. Kallas is expected to double down on curtailing China's support to Russia's war efforts."

Kallas is also known to be close to von der Leyen, who had a difficult relationship with Borrell.

In a recent documentary titled Inside European Diplomacy, Borrell teased Chinese think tankers about the EU's health and education systems being "more collectivist than yours".

On "issues of socioeconomic rights, we are more advanced than you ... we are more communist than you!", Borrell told academics at Shanghai International Studies University.

It is difficult to imagine Kallas in the same situation. Despite having a father whose political career straddled official roles during the Soviet and post-Soviet era, the Estonian has positioned herself as a virulent opponent of communism.

In Brussels, her role will be partly to bridge the chasm between the European Commission and the European Council, of which Kallas was recently a member.

People close to Borrell complain that von der Leyen's main failing during her first term was isolating both the council and the External Action Service helmed by Borrell, a dynamic that helped put the brakes on key elements of the de-risking strategy from China.

"There needs to be a way to bridge the gap, and unless von der Leyen learns to communicate better with Kallas and council, things will not change," said one senior source.

During von der Leyen's speech to the European Parliament on the day she secured her re-election, the word "security" appeared 10 times, while there was no mention of "trade" or "development".

The message is clear: the commission is pushing further into the space that Kallas and incoming council boss Antonio Costa occupy on foreign affairs, arguably reducing the margin for the Estonian to put her mark on China policy.

To address her "potential blind spot" on the topic, Kallas must "assemble a strong team of advisers and experts on East Asian affairs", wrote Brian Iselin in a recent paper for the Institute for Security and Development Policy.

"This team could include seasoned diplomats, regional specialists, and political and economic analysts who can provide in-depth insights into the nuances of engaging with China and other key players in the region," Iselin wrote.

Kallas will have to simultaneously report to von der Leyen and serve the interests of member states - a needle some predecessors have found impossible to thread.

"It's a very difficult job because you have to be a civil servant and a political leader at the same time," said Romana Vlahutin, a former senior EU diplomat who served under three HRVPs.

"But dynamics in Brussels are such that if you have a good idea, if you can read the room, if you are smart and if you are persistent, you can put your stuff on everybody's desk, and you can do things - because everyone is super busy and people appreciate well-argued proposals," said Vlahutin, currently a distinguished fellow for geostrategy at the German Marshall Fund.

"So if you come with a solution, and if you do your preparations well, especially with capitals, you can really lead on issues."

This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2024 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

Copyright (c) 2024. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.