Why Trump, US elections may buoy China's chances as it seeks to gain trust in more 'rational' Europe

Europe's understanding of China is becoming more "rational", the top Chinese diplomat has said, and analysts believe European concerns over the US election outcome could be a window for Beijing as it seeks to gain trust on the continent.

This came as Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi continued to pitch his country as a reliable partner for Europe and a "stabilising force" in global affairs.

Wang held a flurry of meetings this week with his European counterparts on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, with the US presidential elections and the war in Ukraine looming large over the annual forum in the German city.

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Leaders including German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and European Union foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell committed to "oppose" decoupling from China, according to Chinese readouts of their meetings with Wang.

"The European side has a positive attitude towards strengthening exchanges between China and the EU at all levels and is very enthusiastic about deepening practical cooperation," Wang said upon his return to China on Wednesday.

The Chinese foreign minister's trip to Europe also took him to Spain and France after Germany.

"I feel that Europe's rational understanding of China is increasing, and it believes that China's development is in line with the logic of history. Europe should not be afraid of this, let alone reject it," Wang said.

Observers said concerns over US elections later this year could work to China's benefit as it seeks to gain Europe's trust to defend a multipolar international system amid geopolitical rivalry with the United States.

Ding Chun, a Fudan University professor specialising in European studies, said factors such as the US elections and China's "indispensible role" in global affairs could prompt a more "rational" approach from Europe.

"One of the biggest variables for [Europeans] right now, or what they are most worried about, is actually the outcome of the election in the United States ... it will affect the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine conflict," Ding said.

Fears that Republican presidential front runner Donald Trump may return to the White House are mounting in Europe.

The former president has opposed fresh funding for Ukraine, and said earlier this month he would encourage Russia to "do whatever" it wanted to any Nato ally that failed to meet its financial obligations.

Trump has long complained about the lack of defence spending by other Nato countries and repeatedly threatened to pull the US out of the alliance, sparking fears about emboldening Russia.

European leaders condemned Trump's comments. France and Germany also appeared to try to reassure Ukraine of Europe's unwavering support by signing new security pacts and promising more long-term funding. Meanwhile, Republicans continue to block new aid for Ukraine in Congress.

"I think Europe is making some preparations, just in case Trump comes to power, whether it is easing tensions with China or making certain adjustments [in its China policy]," Ding said.

"Europe is now increasingly looking at its bilateral relations [with China] from a strategic and rational perspective, recognising that the other party is an irreplaceable partner, competitor or rival in a sense, especially on the international stage, and in bilateral relations and peripheral relations."

Ding added: "[The EU] may also be afraid that if it treats China as primarily a rival, like the United States currently tends to do, it might push China completely towards Russia. This is something it might not be able to afford."

China's relations with European countries have been strained in recent years over Beijing's close relations with Moscow as the Russian military operation in Ukraine enters its third year.

Despite taking a neutral stance on the conflict, Beijing has yet to condemn the Russian invasion. There is also speculation that it is considering sending weapons to Moscow, a claim Beijing has denied.

Meanwhile, Europe has faced increasing pressure from the US to form a united front to counter China's influence around the world.

Wang Yiwei, a European studies specialist at Renmin University, said Europe recognised the importance of "strategic autonomy" and was not willing to blindly follow US policy towards China.

In a meeting with Wang Yi in Paris on Tuesday, French President Emmanuel Macron said France adhered to "strategic autonomy" and was willing to strengthen coordination with China to safeguard peace and stability in the face of global challenges, according to a Chinese foreign ministry readout.

Wang Yi with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris on Tuesday. Photo: Handout via Xinhua alt=Wang Yi with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris on Tuesday. Photo: Handout via Xinhua>

Macron has championed strategic autonomy for the EU - the idea that the bloc should become more powerful on the world stage and operate independently in a wide range of areas, from military operations to industrial policy. He has urged the bloc not to become a "vassal" of the US or get caught up in its escalating tensions with China.

"Europe is very aware that the United States is guiding [Europe] towards a direction of confrontation with China, but Europe is not willing to completely follow the United States," Wang at Renmin said.

He said while Europe recognised the need to continue practical cooperation with China in areas where this was possible, China's ties with Russia and trade disputes with Europe continued to strain ties.

On Wednesday, the EU for the first time included four Chinese companies in its sanctions list over their roles in aiding Russia's war effort in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the EU is weighing various measures to address a €400 billion (US$430 billion) trade deficit with China, including an anti-subsidy probe into cheap Chinese electric vehicles flooding European markets.

However, Ding said China and Europe had a mutual "understanding" to not let specific disputes dominate overall ties.

"As long as you are not countering each other strategically, or if you want to use [these disputes] as a leverage ... you can always find a solution to it accordingly."

This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2024 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

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