|Day's range||27,635.32 - 27,770.86|
|52-week range||21,712.53 - 27,774.67|
President Donald Trump continued to bash the Federal Reserve, saying stocks would be 25% higher if his own nominee for Fed Chairman had not raised rates during the beginning of his presidency.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes edged higher after earlier hitting record peaks on Tuesday while the Dow dipped slightly as President Donald Trump said the United States is close to signing an initial trade deal with China but offered no new details about negotiations. Stocks were off session highs after a highly anticipated midday speech from Trump, with investors concerned ahead of time about any comments that would worsen the tariff dispute that has convulsed markets for more than a year.
Investing.com - Stocks ended basically flat Tuesday as President Donald Trump's speech did not offer clues on when a China-U.S. trade deal will be signed.
Investing.com – Stocks were struggling to hold onto morning gains Tuesday even as President Donald Trump touted his administration's economy policy and hopes for a phase one trade deal.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit all-time highs during trading but stocks ended off session highs after a highly anticipated midday speech from Trump, with investors concerned ahead of time about any comments that would worsen the tariff dispute that has convulsed markets for more than a year. Trump said U.S. and Chinese negotiators were "close" to a "phase one" trade deal, but largely repeated well-worn rhetoric about China's "cheating" on trade in remarks at The Economic Club of New York.
Investing.com – Wall Street was flat on Tuesday as investors waited for U.S. President Donald Trump to give more insight on resolving the 16-month long trade war with China.
Based on Monday’s price action and the close at 27658, the direction of the December E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at 27538.
The dollar slid and global equity markets fell on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump's remarks over the weekend dashed investor optimism that Washington and Beijing would soon reach a deal to end their debilitating trade war. Moody's warning on Britain's sovereign debt weighed on shares in London, while escalating violence in Hong Kong led Asian equities to their biggest daily decline since August, boosting demand for the safe-haven yen and Swiss franc. Trump said on Saturday that the U.S.-Sino trade talks were moving along "very nicely" but more slowly than he would have liked.
(Bloomberg Opinion) -- It’s been three years now since Donald Trump was elected president, which means it’s been three years of listening to Donald Trump bragging about how great the stock market is doing. Contrary to one now-infamous pre-election prediction, it has done quite well.The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and other market indices are of course imperfect economic indicators. They reflect investors’ beliefs about how well publicly traded corporations are doing and will do in the future, not necessarily the reality of how publicly traded corporations are doing — or of how well the rest of us are doing. The indices most cited in the media also mainly reflect the fortunes of the largest corporations; even as the Dow and S&P 500 have been setting new records lately, the small-cap Russell 2000 is down 9% from its peak in August 2018.Still, the advantage of the S&P 500 as a performance indicator is that it is (1) frequently updated, (2) available back to 1926(1) and (3) not subject to measurement error in the way that, say, the unemployment rate or GDP are. Investors might turn out be wrong, but the index itself simply is what it is.So here’s the total return on the S&P 500, adjusted for inflation, for the first three years after the initial election of every president since Herbert Hoover:Some prefer to track stock market performance from Inauguration Day, and CNN has a handy online tracker that already does this for Trump and the last few presidents. Trump argues that one should measure from Election Day, and while he surely does so mainly because it makes him look better, he also happens to be right. Market indices are forward-looking metrics, and were already reflecting investors’ opinions on a Trump presidency on Nov. 9, 2016.Using this approach left the question of how to measure performance under Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson, who took office after the deaths of their predecessors and were subsequently elected. I decided to go with performance from Election Day, but I think the other approach would be equally valid. As for Gerald Ford, he was neither elected nor served for three years, so there was no place for him in this ranking.Total return measures how much an investment in the companies in the S&P 500 Index would grow if dividends were reinvested in those companies as they were paid out. Dividends were a much bigger part of investor returns before World War II, and even before the 1990s, so any comparison that excludes them overstates market performance under recent presidents. Any comparison that ignores inflation, meanwhile, understates the awfulness of the 1970s stock market and overstates the goodness of the 1980s market.Stock market performance in first three years since Trump’s election, then, ranks fourth among the 14 elected presidents since Herbert Hoover. That’s pretty good! It’s worth noting, though, that there’s not a whole lot separating him from John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton and George H.W. Bush. A bad week or two, and he could easily fall to eighth place. On the other hand, falling to ninth would take some work, as would catching up to Dwight Eisenhower for third. Put into letter grades, I’d give the market’s performance since Trump’s election a solid B.What really stands out from this list is how great the 1950s were for stock market investors. The three-year return was higher for Franklin Roosevelt than for Eisenhower and Harry Truman, but prices had just fallen 80% in the four years before he was elected, and they began falling again in 1937. The 1950s bull market, the great market chronicler John Brooks wrote in 1958, “was by practically any statistical standard the greatest boom on record.” If you go by total return and adjust for inflation, perhaps it still is.(1) That's when Standard Statistics started the daily market index that was the precursor to the S&P 500. Yale economist Robert Shiller has constructed a monthly S&P 500 Index going back to 1871, and it is thus possible to construct rough estimates of total return going back to the Rutherford Hayes presidency, but it would take a lot more work on what is a borderline-silly exercise already, so …To contact the author of this story: Justin Fox at email@example.comTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Sarah Green Carmichael at firstname.lastname@example.orgThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Justin Fox is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering business. He was the editorial director of Harvard Business Review and wrote for Time, Fortune and American Banker. He is the author of “The Myth of the Rational Market.”For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Those who bought stocks as they soared to new records last week amid rising optimism for a trade deal are probably suffering buyer’s remorse after President Donald Trump said the U.S. hasn’t agreed to a rollback of tariffs on China. Are those regrets warranted?As the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite Index all set new marks last week, there were no shortage of studies released that crunched data going back to the 1920s to prove that purchasing stocks when indexes hit record highs generates better risk-adjusted returns than simple buy-and-hold strategies. As Meb Faber — the chief investment officer at Cambria Investment Management, who conducted one of the studies — pointed out, while buying at the highs isn’t really “a system anyone would want to implement,” the data is “an acknowledgement that all-time highs are nothing to be afraid of.”The thing is, despite the recent surge in markets, it appears that plenty of investors are afraid. Rather than going all-in on stocks for fear of missing out, investors are showing almost unprecedented restraint. Money continues to pour into money-market funds, with assets standing at $3.51 trillion as of last Wednesday, up from $3.05 trillion at the start of the year, according to the Investment Company Institute. At the same time, they have pulled $267 billion from equity funds year to date.Put another way, almost half a trillion dollars have been put into cash even as the MSCI USA Index of equities jumped 23.5% this year through Friday. The last time so much money went into cash was in 2008 as the financial crisis was heating up, and it’s a marked difference from 2013, the last time stocks were having a good as year as this one. Back then, money funds only attracted $28 billion.Money funds aren’t the only sign of significant investor caution. Notably, State Street Global Markets’ monthly index — which is derived from actual trades and covers 15% of the world’s tradeable assets — shows that investors this year have been less confident in the outlook for equities than even during the financial crisis.It’s good to see investors showing so much discipline, especially with valuations on the high side. The S&P 500 is trading at 17 times the following year’s projected earnings. That ratio has been higher only once since the economy began to recover from the financial crisis, and that was during late 2017, just before the S&P 500 took a nasty fall, declining 10% over the course of a few weeks in late January and early February 2018.Perhaps the caution is a sign that investors know a trade detente only brings a new set of issues to the forefront. The first is whether equities can keep rising if an agreement only reinforces the notion that the Federal Reserve is done cutting interest rates and may even start talking about boosting them sooner rather than later. In the absence of earnings growth, a strong case can be made that the only reason stocks have managed to rally is because of the Fed’s dovish pivot earlier this year and three subsequent rate cuts. Based on fed funds futures, traders aren’t convinced the central bank will ease monetary policy further any time in the next two years.The second is whether the economy can pick up enough to allow companies to meet lofty earnings estimates for next year. Although analysts have slashed their fourth-quarter earnings forecasts for members of the S&P 500 to an average decline of 0.3% from an increase of 7% in June, estimates for 2020 have barely budged, remaining stubbornly high at 9.7%.So while history shows there’s no reason to avoid buying stocks at all-time highs, there are always exceptions. This could be one of them.To contact the author of this story: Robert Burgess at email@example.comTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Beth Williams at firstname.lastname@example.orgThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Robert Burgess is an editor for Bloomberg Opinion. He is the former global executive editor in charge of financial markets for Bloomberg News. As managing editor, he led the company’s news coverage of credit markets during the global financial crisis.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
Investing.com – Wall Street fell on Monday as violent clashes in Hong Kong and trade comments from U.S. President Donald Trump caused investors to dial down last week's optimism.
Given the ongoing trade issues, the political drama in Washington, the Fed’s multiple moves and geopolitical uncertainties, the one constant this year underpinning stocks has been corporate earnings results.
Based on Friday’s price action and the close at 27631, the direction of the December E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures contract on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the minor pivot at 27538.
The dollar slid and global equity markets fell on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump's remarks over the weekend dashed investor optimism that Washington and Beijing would soon reach a deal to end their debilitating trade war. Trump said on Saturday that the U.S.-Sino trade talks were moving along "very nicely" but more slowly than he would have liked. Last week, U.S. and Chinese officials said they had agreed to roll back tariffs - a key consideration for China - that already are in place in a "phase one" trade deal.
It’s a big week for the markets. UK politics and trade are in focus on the geopolitical front, with the RBNZ also in action. Stats will also influence.
The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco held the central bank's first ever conference focused on climate change on Friday.
Stocks ended slightly higher, shrugging off earlier losses after President Donald Trump wavered over whether tariffs would be rolled back as part of a partial deal with China.
The December E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures contract is in no position to post a daily close price reversal top, but a close under the pivot at 27538 will be a sign of weakness. This move won’t change the trend either, but it will indicate the selling is greater than the buying at current price levels.