|Day's range||3,135.46 - 3,148.87|
|52-week range||2,346.58 - 3,154.26|
Market uncertainty before the tariff deadline was reinforced by comments from U.S. Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue on Monday, who said President Donald Trump did not want to implement tariffs but did want to see "movement" from China. In the euro zone, Christine Lagarde holds her first meeting and news conference as ECB chief on Thursday.
(Bloomberg) -- Stocks fell in Europe while U.S. equity-index futures fluctuated in the countdown to major central bank meetings and a deadline on fresh China tariffs. Treasuries and the dollar were steady.The Stoxx Europe 600 Index opened lower for a second day as almost every industry sector traded in the red. Contracts for the main American gauges struggled for direction as investors await news on whether Washington will go ahead with a planned Dec. 15 tariff hike on imports from China. The picture was mixed in Asia, where a regional gauge declined overall in below average volumes while shares in South Korea and China bucked the retreat. Japan’s 10-year bond yield briefly touched zero for the first time since March.Investors appear to be holding back on aggressive trading before a slew of significant events in the next few days, from Federal Reserve and European Central Bank policy meetings to a general election in Britain. The biggest focus arguably remains on whether the U.S. and China can avert a new round of protectionist duties.“The idea that we have a relatively calmer period of time in the U.S.-China trade tensions is obviously very important,” Ben Powell, BlackRock Investment Institute’s chief Asia-Pacific strategist, said. However, “this is just a temporary period of relative calm,” he said. “The tensions between the U.S. and China are structural and persistent.”Elsewhere, the Mexican peso strengthened on growing optimism that approval is close for USMCA, the trilateral trade accord to replace Nafta. Oil was little changed.Here are some key events to watch this week:The Federal Reserve decides on interest rates on Wednesday, followed by a press briefing from Chairman Jerome Powell.The next European Central Bank policy decision is on Thursday.The U.K. holds a general election Thursday.These are some of the main moves in markets:StocksThe Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.3% as of 8:19 a.m. London time.Futures on the S&P 500 Index where little changed.Germany’s DAX Index sank 0.6%.South Korea’s Kospi index rose 0.4%.The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dipped 0.2%.CurrenciesThe Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed.The British pound was steady at $1.3141.The euro gained 0.1% to $1.1073.The Japanese yen weakened 0.1% to 108.65 per dollar.The Indian rupee jumped 0.2% to 70.896 per dollar.BondsThe yield on 10-year Treasuries was unchanged at 1.82%.The yield on two-year Treasuries increased less than one basis point to 1.61%.Germany’s 10-year yield gained one basis point to -0.30%.Japan’s 10-year yield fell one basis point to -0.013%.CommoditiesWest Texas Intermediate crude decreased 0.2% to $58.91 a barrel.LME nickel fell 1.9% to $13,085 per metric ton.Spot gold rose 0.1% to $1,462.83 an ounce.\--With assistance from David Wilson.To contact the reporters on this story: Andreea Papuc in Sydney at firstname.lastname@example.org;Todd White in Madrid at email@example.comTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Sam Potter at firstname.lastname@example.orgFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
(Bloomberg) -- At this point, most investors probably just want the year to be over to book their gains -- especially now that the Cboe Volatility Index is behaving in a way that’s preceded stock losses in the past.The VIX, also known as Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” jumped 16% on Monday to 15.86, while the S&P 500 Index retreated just 0.3% and is still less than a percent away from its record high.Citigroup Global Markets Inc. strategists William O’Donnell and Edward Acton saw the action as “very interesting,” noting that the VIX experienced a “bullish hammer reversal pattern against major horizontal support.” In other words, a technical indicator shows the gauge is likely to keep rising.That happened just after the S&P 500 and VIX, which move in opposite directions about 80% of the time, rose in tandem for two straight weeks for the first time since early May. Back then, an almost 7% slump in the S&P 500 followed in the next month.There are several events this week that may be spurring investors to hedge: rate decisions by the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, and the Dec. 15 date the Trump Administration is set to impose tariffs on another $160 billion of imports from China.Investors looking for levels on the VIX might want to focus on the 18 area, which represents half of the closing high from last December and is about 50% above this year’s low, according to strategist Todd Salamone of Schaeffer’s Investment Research. The 20 strike is another one to watch as that’s where heavy call-option open interest begins for the Dec. 18 expiration, he said in a note Monday.Salamone highlighted one more key level -- the 24-25 zone, which would be a test of the year-over-year breakeven, as the VIX ended 2018 at 25.42.To contact the reporter on this story: Joanna Ossinger in Singapore at email@example.comTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Christopher Anstey at firstname.lastname@example.org, Cecile Vannucci, Lianting TuFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
Asian equity markets were a tad lower on Tuesday as investors refrained from making major bets before Dec. 15, when the next round of U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports is due to take effect. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down just 0.04% as the Asian trading day began on Tuesday. Australian shares were also 0.04% lower, while Japan's Nikkei lost 0.23%.
Global stock markets fell for a second day on Tuesday, as caution over a Dec. 15 deadline for the next round of U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports weakened risk appetite and limited outsized market moves. Market uncertainty before the tariff deadline was reinforced by comments from U.S. Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue on Monday, who said President Donald Trump did not want to implement tariffs but did want to see "movement" from China. In the euro zone, Christine Lagarde holds her first meeting and news conference as ECB chief on Thursday.
(Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell in thin trading as investors turned cautious ahead of a week full of potential catalysts, from central bank meetings to a looming tariff deadline. Treasury 10-year notes held modest gains.The S&P 500 ended at session lows in volumes below the 30-day average. Weak China export data added to concern, with investors awaiting news on whether Washington will go ahead with a planned Dec. 15 tariff hike. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index retreated. Stock indexes posted modest increases in Tokyo and Seoul, though gains mostly fizzled in Hong Kong and Shanghai.The pound edged higher as polls continued to show the U.K. Conservative Party on course to win a majority in Thursday’s election, which would likely mean Britain leaving the European Union by Jan. 31. Gold and the yen were also slightly higher.With time running out for the U.S. and China to reach a deal that would ward off an escalation in tariffs, markets will be watching closely for any signs of progress. White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said Friday the two sides are haggling over the amount of American farm products Beijing is willing to purchase. Data showed China’s exports fell 1.1% in November, with those to the U.S. tumbling 23%, underscoring why the Asian nation may want to resolve the dispute.“There’s no upside risks on the horizon,” Katrina Ell, an economist at Moody’s Analytics, said on Bloomberg TV. “It is weighted to the downside and that big downside risk is coming from the trade war.”Also in focus for investors this week will be central banks, with policy meetings at the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank that may offer clues on whether more monetary easing is in store in 2020.Elsewhere, oil slipped, trimming last week’s rally spurred by Saudi Arabia promising significant additional production cuts beyond what was agreed with fellow OPEC+ members.Here are some key events to watch this week:The Federal Reserve decides on interest rates on Wednesday, followed by a press briefing from Chairman Jerome Powell.China reports on inflation Tuesday, and data on credit growth is due at some point in the coming weekThe next European Central Bank policy decision is on Thursday.The U.K. holds a general election Thursday.These are some of the main moves in markets:What’s your 2020 vision? Terminal users are invited to join the Markets Live blog’s survey.\--With assistance from Vildana Hajric.To contact the reporter on this story: Sam Potter in London at email@example.comTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Jeremy Herron at firstname.lastname@example.org, Yakob PeterseilFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
Investing.com - Stocks moved lower on Monday ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting this week and on worries about U.S.-China trade talks.
Stock markets were very quiet during the training session on Monday, as we are basically it all-time highs. The S&P; 500 continues to benefit from more of a “risk on” attitude.
(Bloomberg) -- As stocks rallied to record highs last month, retail investors embraced the run.Clients of TD Ameritrade increased their holdings of riskier assets for a second consecutive month in November. That pushed the firm’s Investor Movement Index, which has tracked clients’ positioning since 2010, to the highest level in a year, the Omaha, Nebraska-based brokerage said Monday.“As the market got to all-time highs, our clients started to pick up their pace just a little bit more,” JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade, said in an interview. “There might be an expectation of a Santa Claus rally, so-to-speak, as we head into the end of the year.”The S&P 500 Index gained for a third straight month in November, pushing the benchmark to a record closing high of 3,153.63 on Nov. 27. Up 26% this year, the gauge is set for its second best year of the past decade’s bull market.Still, the level of risk allocation in TD Ameritrade’s measure ranks as “moderately low” on a historical basis, according to the firm. Clients continue to buy short-term fixed income products with maturities of six months or less, Kinahan said. However, purchases of bonds in November weren’t as aggressive as earlier this year, and investors are gravitating more toward equities.Below are some of the most popular buys and sells ordered by TD Ameritrade clients last month:BUYS: The Walt Disney Co., Microsoft Corp., McDonald’s Corp., Ford Motor Co.SELLS: Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., Tesla Inc., Netflix Inc.To contact the reporter on this story: Sarah Ponczek in New York at email@example.comTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Jeremy Herron at firstname.lastname@example.org, Brendan Walsh, Rita NazarethFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
Based on the early price action and the current price at 3148.00, the direction of the December E-mini S&P; 500 Index the rest of the session on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending Gann angle at 3148.00.
Wall Street is focussed on Dec. 15, when the next round of U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports is scheduled to take effect. China said on Monday that it hoped to make a trade deal with the United States as soon as possible. Investor hopes of at least an initial U.S.-China agreement have helped push major stock indexes to record highs, with the benchmark S&P 500 hovering about 0.5% below its all-time high.
U.S. stocks were set to open lower on Monday as weak data from China brought back fears of a slowdown in the world's second-biggest economy, while investors looked for any positive news on trade talks ahead of a tariff deadline later in the week. China's exports in November shrank for the fourth consecutive month, underscoring persistent pressures on manufacturers from the Sino-U.S. war, but growth in imports may be a sign that Beijing's stimulus steps are helping to stoke demand. In a quiet start to the week, market participants are expected to keep a close watch on trade as planned U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports kick in on Dec. 15 that will cover several consumer products, including mobile phones and toys.
Great traders are often the result of dedication to principle, theory, price study, and a solid understanding of Intermarket market dynamics. The one thing that can’t be taught, though, is experience behind the screens and with the markets.
Asian stocks edged up on Monday, catching some of Wall Street's momentum after surprisingly strong U.S. jobs data, although regional gains were capped by concerns about China's economic slowdown due to the prolonged Sino-U.S. trade war. Japan's benchmark Nikkei added 0.33% while MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 0.27%.
By the end of the week, the stock market ship had righted itself, moving higher on the back of fresh data on the labor markets and the stunning report on consumer sentiment. Both reports underscored the overall health of the U.S. economy while putting the major equity markets in a position to retest all-time highs this week.
It has been a tough year for energy investors, with a record number of bankruptcies in the space and its key benchmark underperforming, but there are still plenty of ways for energy investors to profit in 2020
(Bloomberg) -- You know something strange is going on when the stock market’s most reliable optimists sound like cranks.Wall Street strategists have been thrust into just such a role at the end of 2019, as this year’s stunning recovery in the S&P 500 pushed it hundreds of points above where they thought it would be. So hot have stocks gotten that professional prognosticators are having a hard time mustering much optimism for next year.Which is unusual, for them. A reliable tradition on Wall Street is the propensity of stock strategists -- as a group -- to predict the same thing over and over. Since 2009, they’ve rarely wavered from a script in which they say the S&P 500 will rise about 10% in the coming year. Right now, they see half that.“We see the market already pricing in a strong rebound in macro and earnings growth, back up to the peaks of this cycle, much stronger than we expect,” said Binky Chadha, chief global strategist at Deutsche Bank. Chadha saw the S&P 500 rising to 3,250 this year -- the highest of anyone tracked by Bloomberg -- and expects it to stay there at the end of 2020.The index closed Friday at 3,146, up 25% year to date.Together, professional forecasters are giving the least optimistic annual outlook in more than a decade. Their average call is for the S&P 500 to end next year at 3,280, going by 17 estimates compiled by Bloomberg. As it stands now, that represents a 4.3% expected increase, the smallest for any year since 2004.A few things are influencing the muted tone. One, strategists failed to anticipate the magnitude of this year’s recovery, which as of Friday had driven the S&P 500 up 34% from its December 2018 low. The market’s latest leg up keeps narrowing the size of the advance they see in 2020. In addition, strategists remain concerned about the relatively anemic earnings growth upon which this year’s rally is based. Virtually all of this year’s gains are the result of fattening valuations, a trend they don’t see continuing.Big misses when stocks rally are a predictable outcome for strategists, who over the past two decades have forecast gains in U.S. stocks that average out to 9.5%. While that may seem lemming-like, it’s an acknowledgment of the market’s general tendency over time. The annualized gain in the S&P 500 is 9.4% since its inception.Strategists have also never called for a down year in the period Bloomberg has tracked them. Still, their 2020 forecast marks a notable step down. Betting on a repeat of 2019 would be a mistake, they warn, highlighting event risks such as next year’s U.S. presidential elections and a re-escalation of trade tensions.At least three strategists expect the S&P 500 to be lower a year from now. Mike Wilson at Morgan Stanley and Francois Trahan at UBS Group AG have both set a year-end target of 3,000, while Sophie Huynh at Societe Generale has 3,050.On the bull side is Jonathan Golub at Credit Suisse, whose 3,425 target is by far the highest among those tracked by Bloomberg. Citing an improving earnings outlook and relatively attractive valuations, Golub says it’s too early to bail even with the record-long bull market heading toward its 12th year.At 17.8 times forecast profits, the S&P 500 traded at a multiple that’s higher than any time since the dot-com era, except for a few months in late 2017 and early 2018, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Still, with the Federal Reserve in an easing mode and Treasury yields hovering near record lows, stocks can hardly be framed as excessively over-valued.“The S&P 500 valuations don’t necessarily start off as inexpensive as” markets like Europe, said Sean Darby, global equity strategist at Jefferies whose target is 3,300. “But the cyclicals offer a lot of earnings upside if the global economy begins to resynchronize.”Strategists have forecast annual gains of 5% or less three times before. In 2014 and 2017, they ended up under-shooting by at least 7 percentage points. In 2005, they were right on target.“It’s important to understand what the consensus is,” Dan Veru, chief investment officer at Palisade Capital Management, said by phone “Expectations are very low. I always want to take the other side of that.”To contact the reporter on this story: Lu Wang in New York at email@example.comTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Jeremy Herron at firstname.lastname@example.orgFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.