|Day's range||7,584.17 - 7,723.04|
|52-week range||5,895.12 - 7,851.97|
Investing.com - Stocks fell back Tuesday as investors became more certain the Federal Reserve will only enact a modest rate cut at its July meeting. In addition, unease grew about the prospects for a meeting between President Donald Trump and China President Xi Jinping
Based on the early price action, the direction of the September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending Gann angle at 7742.75.
It looks as if inflation levels and the labor market will have the biggest influence on policymakers. This puts the emphasis on Friday’s PCE deflator, a major inflation indicator for the Fed, and the July 5 U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report. Essentially, the decision to cut rates comes down to whether policymakers feel the need for insurance against an economic downturn, or the need to stimulate the economy.
This is not a panic situation so the Fed’s decision will still be data dependent. If labor market, manufacturing and inflation data continue to come in weak, then they’ll cut in July. If it stays steady or improves, then they won’t. That’s the risk of being “all in” at current price levels.
Investing.com - Stocks took off on Tuesday after President Donald Trump announced he plans to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in a bid to resolve their trade dispute.
Based on last week’s price action and the close at 7504.75, the direction of the September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at 7551.00.
As of today, the NQ has already moved upward by over 400 points since the end of May. This price advance equaling our expected data range would suggest that the upward price move in the NQ may be very close to ending.
One result is predicting an upward price bias over the next 2 to 4 months whereas the second result is predicting a sideways price result over the same period of time.
Based on Thursday’s action, the direction of the June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index early Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main Fibonacci level at 7521.00.
This means that investors aren’t likely to take the markets much higher until they see the Fed’s rate projections following next week’s meeting. In other words, the next leg up in the stock market hinges upon whether the Fed hints at 2 or 3 rate cuts later this year.
If you’re looking for a reason for the across the board reversals on Tuesday, look no further than position-trimming ahead of next week’s two-day Federal Reserve policy meeting.
Powell took the wind out of the argument for a recession because as you should know by now, the Fed is pretty powerful. With the stock market rallying and believe it or not, the President threatening more tariffs on China, stocks are on a roll again and within striking distance of their all-time highs.
Based on the early price action, the direction of the June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main Fibonacci level at 7521.00.
A shift in FED sentiment towards monetary policy and hopes of progress in trade talks drove the majors in the week.
Investing.com - Stocks soared to their highest levels in the last four weeks, in part because of perceived bad news about the economy that could lead to lower interest rates and hopes that Mexico and the United States can strike a deal over border security.
This week’s stock market performance, in the wake of the on-going trade dispute between the United States and China, and the new tariffs on Mexico, clearly shows that investors are counting on the Fed and to a lesser-extent, the European Central Bank to cut rates or provide additional stimulus measures sooner than previously thought.
On Tuesday, Powell made the jump from telling investors to be “patient” about the direction of interest rates to saying the Fed will “act as appropriate to sustain the expansion.” According to some, it’s not the current economic situation that is causing the worries, but rather the future due to the uncertainty over how the trade dispute against China will play out over the long-run.