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Invitae Corporation (0JDB.L)

LSE - LSE Delayed price. Currency in USD
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12.07-0.57 (-4.51%)
At close: 07:06PM GMT
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  • G
    George
    My take away from this week‘s JPM conference:

    - by end of year they will have the most comprehensive testing menus in the industry
    - before we know revenues will be 1 billion, then 2 billions
    - end of cash burn and dilution comes near as the company has shifted to a path of positive operating cashflow
    - they are building partnerships and platforms of constant revenue streams beyond current perception (thus will be demonstrated throughout a technology day in early spring)
    - they will start reliably guiding on metrics such as cashflow etc starting as early as march
    - patient population is rapidly evolving and -obviously- exponentially growing as shown in last press release. I guess we‘ll blow past 3 million patients before second half of this year and will end not under 4 million in 2022. In suspect at least another double from here in 2023.
  • d
    dsl
    Not a hater and I don't know the future anymore than anyone else, but I see 2 problems with NVTA.

    1) They are burning 100's of millions each quarter. That cash must come from somewhere. Yes, they have $1B in cash but they also have $900M in debt and a market cap of ~$2.5B makes it difficult to raise money without diluting equity shareholders.

    2) Most of their growth hasn't been organic, it has been through acquisitions. This is a problem on many fronts. When they acquire companies, they have to integrate the platforms which is expensive and increases they cost per test, they have to make good on stock options for the acquired company, which is dilutive to existing shareholders. Growth through acquisition is not as financially "clean" as organic growth and so there is the possibility of creative accounting to massage trends into something that paints a pretty picture. In 2022, if they don't acquire another company we will see their real organic growth rate. If it's smaller percentage-wise than previous years, that will not be a good setup for the stock price.

    My conclusion, I think this is going lower because they aren't quite far enough along to use income or profits to fund acquisitions or organic growth. But, if they can hang in there and start to become profitable, that low entry price will be a set up to lose all your capital (hey, this is a tough game and that can happen) or to be a 10 bagger+ over the next few years. So, on a coin flip you either lose your bet or get a 10X return. I will be making that bet soon...but not quite yet. Hope this helps someone. We've ALL had bad beats and they aren't fun.
  • G
    George
  • S
    Steve
    Didn't make much news, but Exact Sci bought Prevention Genetics (a weak privately owned competitor in the same space as Invitae). They'll get into the inherited cancer genetics panel space by doing so. I'm guessing they'll also incorporate germline tests into their early cancer detection products (merge that information with methylation, etc.).

    Just to give you an idea about Invitae's stellar performance over the years (their business, not the stock), Invitae started after Prevention and now Invitae makes $458M in revenue and Prevention makes $9M. BTW, Invitae makes most of their revenue from their whole exome-based tests (in-house developed), rather than their acquisitions.
  • J
    J
    Not that it matters but it looks Ark picked up another half million shares or so between 2 funds on Friday. Sure wish this thing would finally turn the corner. It is so dirt cheap.
  • S
    Swampoodle Sid
    Oh gee. another new low for NVTA. Who'dve thunk it. (I have some shares. Not a short). I'm starting to think that 90% down is where this will ultimately wind up. Had thought about doubling down around here, but in the current climate, probably can get it lower. Long-term, it's still has great potential.
  • R
    RICHARD
    we discovered a rare heart issue using NVTA - it led me to get a defibrillator and identified same mutation in my 17 year old son that I have and that took my mother and her uncle. It was originally thought to be just freak heart attacks in our family, but has since been identified as a variant which leads to sudden cardiac death cause by arythmias. very avoidable with a defib. this tech didn't exist 10 years ago. it will save so many lives and become a pillar in the medical community. let them continue to invest in R&D and forgo ST profits. build higher barriers and own the space eventually. genetic testing is the future. it will undoubtedly save millions of lives and has already saved mine. go Invitae!! and for those of you short this company, you will get your face ripped off in the long term and are betting against the well being of our country.
  • A
    Anonymous
    $458M in revenue for 2021. That means revenue in Q4 was significantly higher than the other three quarters at $123M.
  • b
    barry
    Just listened to the webcast. Glad to know that they will be giving us forward guidance on revenues, margins, and so forth. This will help investor confidence and give us measureables. I think nvta is using the tools presently available to improve and anticipate health outcomes. It is a process and I am patient.
  • R
    Raama
    Great numbers, very undervalued stock. 20 in few days.

    Generated revenue of more than $458 million in 2021, an approximate 64 percent increase from $279.6 million in 2020

    Generated billable volume of more than 1.16 million in 2021, an approximate 76 percent increase from billable volume of 659,000 in 2020

    Total active healthcare provider accounts are over 17,500, almost doubling since the beginning of 2020

    Active pharma and commercial partnerships grew to 178, an increase of approximately 68 percent in 2021 driving continued revenue growth from Invitae's data and data services platform to pharma, health system and software and services partners
  • T
    Tambo210
    Most days every week, for the last few months, the pre-market shows green. Starts green in open trading, and then gravitates lower before sinking hard towards the end of the trading day.

    This is happening to many in this space.

    Algos and traders clearly are working these stocks. They're forcing many holders to sell small quantities of their holdings over time......and it adds up.

    I very much doubt this is a short attack, but we'll see in the next few short interest readouts.
    It grew by 2m (can't be sure but it might be the end of Dec readout)
  • R
    Ralph
    I saw something today that might indicate we may have a bottom in place

    The stock stopped going down midday even when the NASDAQ kept free falling

    Who knows, but 11-12 might be the bottom

    Will see!!!!
  • B
    Bob Packer
    Nice presentation...nice to see Randy Scott still involved. Good big picture overview of what they are doing.
  • Z
    Zen
    The $5-7 range is getting closer, with a possibility of $3 per share. Then, the stock will trade up to the $14-15 value through at least the end of 2023. Buying at $3 is a bargain. Buying at $10-12 is still risky.
  • R
    Robert
    To my friends at NVTA: I wish you would stop jabbering about share price, and start looking at the state of health care in America at this moment. NVTA is dedicated to bringing genetic testing to the world, in order to help conquer the world's most serious diseases--heart ailments, various cancers, and the several alphabet diseases, and more. I am not a physician, so look at the company mission statement, and forget share price.
    Right now health care around the world is paralyzed by the epidemic of Covid and variants.
    Example: Two weeks ago my sister (age 70) suffered extreme stomach pains, and was whisked to the hospital, which had no available beds and no internist who could see her. Same at the second and third hospitals. At the fourth hospital, ninety miles from home, she got a diagnosis of diverticulitis--which is a serious matter--and was sent home with some pills.
    Is it still a mystery that NVTA share prices are falling?
    There is simply not room right now, in the midst of this pandemic, to adequately treat the many serious diseases that NVTA is designed and committed to conquer! So why have more tests? And shares drop.
    Meanwhile the company has arrangements with over sixty pharma companies to supply them with tests which will advance their research projects. That should help both top and bottom lines
    The company has promised that costs will drop in the next quarterly report, and margins will improve.
    I hope that is true. And remember $18. Amazon, which lost money for some twenty years, and look at what happened. I truly think NVTA has the same potential. Best regards to all.
  • G
    Greg-1
    Going forward gross margin and cash burn guidance to be provided.
  • J
    JohnD
    When the stock was at $60 a year ago, it was undervalued. But after losing 85% and going to near $10 now, it's clear the stock is overvalued today. Buying low and selling high is an outdated paradigm. Need to buy high, sell higher. Like Tesla, Bitcoin...
  • G
    George
    NVTA took mote than 10 years to add 1 million customers to its platform. In August 2021 the co announced to have grown its customer base to 2 million. Not even half a year later this number has already grown to 2.5 million whike at the same time over 60 % of them agree to have their data shared thus setting the ground for NVTA‘s recurring revenue.

    Sounds great to me!
  • c
    charles
    very respectable sequential rev growth from $114 Mil in q3 to $136 Mil in Q4. Blought shares here, dirt cheap.