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Iridium Communications Inc. (0JDO.L)

LSE - LSE Delayed price. Currency in USD
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47.57+1.92 (+4.19%)
As of 06:10PM BST. Market open.

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  • P
    PCSTEL
    EagleFan

    The very intriguing issue is the following.

    As you may know, SpaceX /Starlink (as well as Kepler) has filed with the FCC to "share" GSAT' BIG LEO spectrum. Big LEO originally licensed 4 Big LEO Licensees. Only two launched GSAT/IRDM. So SpaceX/Starlink have designs on GSAT's Big Leo FDD 1610-1617 and 2483-2500Mhz assignments.
    Monroe seems to be having a bit of a spat with Musk and his designs on GSAT's spectrum. In a SEC statement released on the 12th. Monroe noted.

    "issued a statement to Company personnel: “You have all seen that many people and companies who claim to be competitors have recently made vague, hasty statements about satellite services they hope to provide someday. As you know, there is a tremendous difference between tweeting or otherwise extolling your aspirations and actually bringing a complex satellite communications service to market. We all know intimately that getting a service into the market is not possible without years of hard work overcoming technical and regulatory hurdles and without a global spectrum position--like Globalstar’s--that is up to the job."

    Now his statement "Tweeting" is a direct affront to Musk. But, I tend to think that GSAT needs Musk, much more than Musk needs GSAT. For example, we have seen the satellite order for GSAT in recent months for deliveries in 2025. But, where is the launch contract? The low-cost launch provider is obviously SpaceX. Perhaps SpaceX isn't interested in launching GSAT's new satellites in 2025? Where do they go? Russia like last time?? Obviously not. Same for the Chinese. Blue Origin/New Glenn/ perhaps, but Blue Origin / Kepler Communications is also after GSAT's Big LEO spectrum to share. So Blue Origin may not want to provide those services either. Plus we are still waiting on the BE4 (New Glenn/Vulcan) and New Glen has never flown. So that would leave ULA using the Vulcan. (never flown) and also the BE4 engine (Never flown). Perhaps ESA and the Ariane 6, which also has never flown. All of those potential options, if even available, will be much more expensive than SpaceX Falcon 9 and in some cases may not have the capability in 2025 to launch. So this could put GSAT in a very precarious position. After all, they need to raise funding in Q4. And they will need to know how much it will cost to launch for the round of potential funding.
  • E
    EagleFan
    A very interesting filing with the FCC from UL (Underwriters Lab) for Apple. It shows Apple testing their Iphone 14 pro in radio frequencies that a exclusive to Iridium. The frequencies 1610-1626 MHz are almost completely exclusive to Iridium. The iphone 14 has the Qualcomm x65 RF chip in it and that is known to work in the Iridium frequency. I am guessing that Apple thinks they need more satellite capacity than is available from GSAT, so they are also doing a deal with IRDM. IRDM will soon be announcing a deal with Apple.

    https://fcc.report/FCC-ID/BCG-E8155A/6097414
    14040866-E22V1 FCC_IC MSS Report Test Report
    fcc.report
  • G
    GEGR  Pink Diamond 14 Co's
    Iridium Communications Holding 2 % Gains for The Week and 24 % Gains for 3 months as Per MarketWatch. Is Dip-Buying Your Strategy in Sept. ??
  • S
    Scamy
    Doesn’t the federal gov have some kind of unlimited user agreement with Iridium? Could a hypothetical iridium sos iPhone service be comped for federal employees as part of this program?
  • P
    PCSTEL
    The money in the TMobile / Starlink deal is in Satellite IoT, and TMobile and Starlink understand this. Satellite IoT is expected to grow from a 775MM market in 2021 to a 6.7 Billion dollar market by 2031. There are a number of Satellite IoT operators like Globalstar, Irdium, Orbcomm, and Swarm. All use "dedicated spectrum", satellites, and custom user terminals for either Simplex or Duplex services. This "dedicated spectrum" creates an environment of expensive development and low quantities on a manufacturing basis. So the UT's tend to be "moderately expensive" $100's of $ due to lack of Economics of Scale in the development of components. Likewise, Service Plans tend to be a bit elevated for the tiny amount of data being transmitted/processed. Other issues are integration issues of bringing data from the Satellite IoT specific network into the corporation's other Terrestrial IoT networks. Some operators like Iridium are providing gateways via AWS. So now you say you can move this Satellite IoT into global CMRS spectrum. The Economics of Scale of the Satellite IoT User Terminal just explodes. Tiny parts/antennas/GPS/modems developed by hundreds/thousands of companies are now available to manufacture CMRS Satellite IoT devices that will be frequency agile to cover several CMRS bands for tens of dollars.. Not hundreds of dollars. In addition, the pricing plans would likely be "Highly Disruptive" to these traditional Satellite IoT providers. This is the 800lb Gorilla in the room. Companies like Iridium and Globalstar have largely dismissed these "Mega-Constellations" as any threat of competition to their futures. They have claimed in some cases that constellations like Starlink and OneWeb are actually "complementary" to their business models. Well, with this move, these Satellite IoT companies have surely modified their "viewpoints", but perhaps not publically. Especially those Simplex-centric Satellite IoT companies. After all, you go from needing specific globally harmonized Satellite spectrum to compete in this market to a point that most CMRS Spectrum can now be used as Simplex Satellite IoT. This business model will propel other Telecom Operators from around the globe to integrate this Satellite IoT featrure into their own spectrum allowing these Satellite IoT devices to roam from country to country, yet still deliver the data on a unified network that is already in place. The really expensive part of the equation is already in place. The global 4G/5G Terrestrial Core Networks. Heck, while they are at it. Starlink could add 1090Mhz ADSB receiver and give companies like Aireon a run for their money.
  • 2
    20/20
    My comment in 2019;

    “***I assume starlink is going to take a lot of Iridium's customers, at least all those that would rather have the pizza box sized antenna in exchange for 1000's of times higher bandwidth. This company's selling keyboard phones as Steve Job's is introducing the first iPhone "Do you get it now?”***

    My trading account is up 700% since then, how are you rocket scientists doing? LOL
  • P
    PCSTEL
    Interesting.. Very Interesting..

    https://fcc.report/FCC-ID/BCG-E8155A/6097414
  • A
    Anthony m
    t mobile and space x not so sure will get it done like every one thinks they have tons on head winds and approvals needed , i would bet on Apple And Gsat ,global star .there in the satellite business for decades and have all the approvals and there equipment trumps teslas little sats ,, apple verse tesla !!!!! apple hands down
  • 2
    2 moonrbust
    Cathie Wood sold more IRDM today, continuing her selling this week.
  • C
    Carol Baskins
    pretty impressive that IRDM is actually UP ytd
  • 2
    20/20
    Absolutely amazing! Last night Starling and T-Mobile are going to team up and make IRDM A bankrupt company. This reminds me of when the iPhone was introduced and yet blackberry RIMM kept rallying, stock buyers are so dumb!
  • P
    PCSTEL
    A very salient point that should be considered here. Up to now. The focus has been on Aireons ADS-B capability over water outside of land based ADS-B systems. But, here we have an excellent example of the overall diagnostic capability of commercial aircraft flight data over LAND. The ability for the FAA to access flight data on any flight over foreign soil or ocean is an invaluable asset. Your data integrity is 100% guaranteed. You don't have to rely on data provided by a foreign government or agency. So instead of only needing Aireon for Oceanic flights.. Now Aireon is also highly valuable for over land flights.

    I mean Boeing has stated that they will have a fix for the issue in about 10 days.. The Black Box which was very compromised is only now being explored. Which means Boeing has also reviewed the Aireon Data as part of the fault process. Getting the affected planes modified and return to air is worth Billions of dollars to Boeing. Aireon is quickly becoming a National Asset.

    PCSTEL
  • D
    Daniel
    According to the CEO on CNBC last week IRDM has completed the launch of all 66 satellites and has all the ground stations in place. So, again, according to the CEO on CNBC last week IRDM's free cash flow as a result of the capital expenditures have been completed for the next 10 years starting in 2019. If all this is true then investors should see big expansions in free cash flow. Again, we will find out a lot from the next earnings call later this month. Forward projections should reflect what the CEO was claiming on CNBC last week.
  • r
    ryi
    Quod non est determinata ad veram meritorum aestimationem hominis http://dataunion.tistory.com/9566 War may sometimes be a necessary evil. But no matter how necessary, it is always an evil, never a good. We will not learn how to live together in peace by killing each other's children.
  • E
    EagleFan
    To the shorts, does this qualify as a "rip your face off rally" ?

    Rust, Oneweb very different. Different market, consumer, technology, spectrum, frequency, etc. There are number of others in the Oneweb space including Elon Musk. This may take some of Iridiums market but not the lion's share. It may also add some business to Iridium as some of these other constellations could partner with Iridium. Really, Oneweb is not the concern for the future stock price of Iridium. The real question, can they grow sales to meet higher market valuations/expectations? We will see if they can do this while the others are still planning their constellations. You have been in this stock for some time. I believe that you have more time to make a decision at a modest risk/good upside.
  • B
    Bob
    Iridium enjoyed solid revenue and subscriber growth to start 2019, driven predominantly by strength in commercial services.  New contributions from hosted payloads and continued momentum in commercial IoT are expected to be a tailwind to our business and support OEBITDA growth for the remainder of the year," said Matt Desch, CEO, Iridium.
  • E
    EagleFan
    Great event at National Press Club. My pros and cons.
    Pros: Wow, amazing story line. The hurdles they jumped to get to this point are truly amazing. In 2010 they put their trust in Elon Musk and the French Government, and it worked!!! Kudos to the management team, engineers and finance guys. A great update and powerful constellation to generate revenue for the next 10 years and beyond.
    Cons: Chips sets, dev tools and modems not ready. To get the truly revolutionary products to the market, they will need time to finalize hardware, create development tools, work with partners and get government certifications.

    My read from the stock perspective. The company will grow fast but not for some time. Given the state of the Certus development tools and modems, substantial growth will not come until the back half of 2020. Existing IoT is experiencing high growth rate but they are low ARPU. Seems like stock will be range bound for the next 1.5-2 years. Then increase in value as growth accelerates. I was hoping management was sandbagging their current projects. Given status of modems, I think their projects look more realistic.
  • t
    travis
    ARK just bought $22,226,542 worth of shares yesterday.